Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Nesebar: prediction and stats
Second LeagueRegular Season - 18Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Ivailo, Veliko Târnovo
The Footlab model makes Etar Veliko Tarnovo the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Nesebar. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Nesebar?
A very open match: only 56 Elo points separate Etar Veliko Tarnovo (1,651) and Nesebar (1,707).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Etar Veliko Tarnovo have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Nesebar have 12, 0 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa(away) | 1-2 | Second League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rilski Sportist(home) | 1-1 | Second League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Marek(home) | 1-0 | Second League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Yantra 2019(home) | 2-1 | Second League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Nesebar(away) | 5-1 | Second League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Pirin Blagoevgrad(home) | 7-0 | Second League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sportist Svoge(away) | 1-0 | Second League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Dobrudzha(home) | 2-0 | Second League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Montana(away) | 1-3 | Second League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo(home) | 1-5 | Second League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Etar Veliko Tarnovo win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Nesebar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | Nesebar 1-5 Etar Veliko Tarnovo | Second League |
| May 11, 2025 | Nesebar 0-2 Etar Veliko Tarnovo | Second League |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Nesebar 1-2 Etar Veliko Tarnovo | Friendlies Clubs |
| Nov 16, 2024 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3-0 Nesebar | Second League |
| Jun 29, 2024 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo 0-1 Nesebar | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 27, 2017 | Nesebar 2-2 Etar Veliko Tarnovo | Second League |
Last archived meeting: Nesebar vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo on Jul 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Etar Veliko Tarnovo score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Nesebar score 3.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 1.7 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Nesebar | 3.7 | 1.1 | 7 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Etar Veliko Tarnovo sit 2nd in Second League (10 points from 5 matches) and Nesebar sit 4th (9 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | Nesebar | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Nesebar?
- The Footlab model makes Etar Veliko Tarnovo the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Nesebar.
- Where and when is Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Nesebar played?
- Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Nesebar is played on November 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Ivailo, in the Second League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 28, 2026Ludogorets IIvsRilski Sportist
- Nov 28, 2026CSKA Sofia IIvsVihren
- Nov 28, 2026Spartak PlevenvsYantra 2019
- Nov 28, 2026MontanavsSportist Svoge
- Nov 28, 2026Pirin BlagoevgradvsDobrudzha
- Nov 28, 2026Hebar 1918vsBeroe
- Nov 28, 2026Chernomorets 1919 BurgasvsLokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
- Nov 28, 2026FratriavsMarek