Etoile de l'Est vs Bugesera: prediction and stats
National Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on November 20, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Bugesera the favourite at 40%, against 32% for a draw and 28% for Etoile de l'Est. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Etoile de l'Est vs Bugesera?
Bugesera starts as the favourite with a 122-point Elo edge (1,668 vs 1,546).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Etoile de l'Est vs Bugesera
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Etoile de l'Est
Not enough data to predict the Etoile de l'Est lineup.
Bugesera
Not enough data to predict the Bugesera lineup.
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:15 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Etoile de l'Est have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Bugesera have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | Gicumbi(home) | 1-2 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | AS Kigali(home) | 0-0 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Amagaju(away) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 11, 2024 | Bugesera(home) | 0-3 | National Soccer League |
| May 4, 2024 | Police(away) | 2-1 | National Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Etincelles(home) | 2-0 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Kiyovu Sports(away) | 0-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 30, 2026 | Rutsiro(away) | 2-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 26, 2026 | Rayon Sports(away) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mukura(away) | 2-2 | National Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Etoile de l'Est wins, 1 draw, 3 Bugesera wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2024 | Etoile de l'Est 0-3 Bugesera | National Soccer League |
| Dec 12, 2023 | Bugesera 2-1 Etoile de l'Est | National Soccer League |
| Apr 22, 2022 | Etoile de l'Est 0-1 Bugesera | National Soccer League |
| Dec 17, 2021 | Bugesera 0-0 Etoile de l'Est | National Soccer League |
Last archived meeting: Etoile de l'Est vs Bugesera on May 11, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Etoile de l'Est score 0.6 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Bugesera score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 32% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Etoile de l'Est | 0.6 | 0.9 | 6 | 3/15 | 3/15 |
| Bugesera | 1.1 | 1.2 | 6 | 3/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Etoile de l'Est sit 17th in National Soccer League (1 point from 3 matches) and Bugesera sit 10th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bugesera | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 | Etoile de l'Est | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
A question about Etoile de l'Est vs Bugesera?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Etoile de l'Est vs Bugesera?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bugesera the favourite at 40%, against 32% for a draw and 28% for Etoile de l'Est.
- Where and when is Etoile de l'Est vs Bugesera played?
- Etoile de l'Est vs Bugesera is played on November 20, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the National Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 32% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.