Etzella Ettelbruck vs Progres Niederkorn: prediction and stats
National DivisionRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Centre Sportif du Deich, Ettelbrück
The Footlab model makes Progres Niederkorn the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Etzella Ettelbruck. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Etzella Ettelbruck vs Progres Niederkorn?
Progres Niederkorn starts as the favourite with a 234-point Elo edge (1,556 vs 1,322).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Etzella Ettelbruck have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Progres Niederkorn have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | UN Kaerjeng 97(home) | 0-1 | National Division |
| Aug 16, 2026 | US Hostert(away) | 1-5 | National Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg(home) | 0-1 | National Division |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Wiltz(away) | 1-1 | National Division |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Jeunesse Canach(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | UNA Strassen(home) | 0-1 | National Division |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Atert Bissen(away) | 4-0 | National Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Résidence Walferdange(away) | 1-0 | National Division |
| Aug 1, 2026 | AS Jeunesse Esch(home) | 2-1 | National Division |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Excelsior Virton(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Etzella Ettelbruck win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Progres Niederkorn win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2023 | Progres Niederkorn 3-1 Etzella Ettelbruck | National Division |
| Nov 13, 2022 | Etzella Ettelbruck 0-1 Progres Niederkorn | National Division |
| May 7, 2022 | Etzella Ettelbruck 1-1 Progres Niederkorn | National Division |
| Dec 4, 2021 | Progres Niederkorn 6-0 Etzella Ettelbruck | National Division |
| May 2, 2021 | Progres Niederkorn 3-1 Etzella Ettelbruck | National Division |
| Mar 10, 2021 | Etzella Ettelbruck 0-1 Progres Niederkorn | National Division |
Last archived meeting: Progres Niederkorn vs Etzella Ettelbruck on Apr 23, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Etzella Ettelbruck score 1.7 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Progres Niederkorn score 1.5 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Etzella Ettelbruck | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Progres Niederkorn | 1.5 | 1.8 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Etzella Ettelbruck sit 12th in National Division (1 points from 3 matches) and Progres Niederkorn sit 3rd (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Progres Niederkorn | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 4 | Progres Niederkorn | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 12 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| 14 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Etzella Ettelbruck vs Progres Niederkorn?
- The Footlab model makes Progres Niederkorn the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Etzella Ettelbruck.
- Where and when is Etzella Ettelbruck vs Progres Niederkorn played?
- Etzella Ettelbruck vs Progres Niederkorn is played on October 25, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Centre Sportif du Deich, in the National Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 25, 2026FC Differdange 03vsF91 Dudelange
- Oct 25, 2026Racing FC Union LuxembourgvsUS Mondorf-les-bains
- Oct 25, 2026UN Kaerjeng 97vsAtert Bissen
- Oct 25, 2026Victoria RosportvsRésidence Walferdange
- Oct 25, 2026US HostertvsUNA Strassen
- Oct 25, 2026WiltzvsUS Rumelange
- Oct 25, 2026Swift HesperangevsAS Jeunesse Esch