Everton vs Manchester United: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 3Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool, Merseyside
The Footlab model makes Manchester United the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Everton. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Everton vs Manchester United?
Manchester United starts as the favourite with a 148-point Elo edge (2,233 vs 2,085).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Everton have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Manchester United have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Lille(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Newcastle(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | VfB Stuttgart(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hamburger SV(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Stoke City(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | AC Milan(home) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Rosenborg(away) | 5-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Everton win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Manchester United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2026 | Everton 0-1 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Nov 24, 2025 | Manchester United 0-1 Everton | Premier League |
| Aug 3, 2025 | Manchester United 2-2 Everton | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Everton 2-2 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Manchester United 4-0 Everton | Premier League |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Manchester United 2-0 Everton | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Everton vs Manchester United on Feb 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Everton score 1.6 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Manchester United score 1.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | 1.6 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Manchester United | 1.9 | 1.2 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Everton sit 13th in Premier League (49 points from 38 matches) and Manchester United sit 3rd (71 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Manchester United | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 69 | 50 | 71 |
| 13 | Everton | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 47 | 50 | 49 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Everton vs Manchester United?
- The Footlab model makes Manchester United the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Everton.
- Where and when is Everton vs Manchester United played?
- Everton vs Manchester United is played on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Hill Dickinson Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.