Everton vs Newcastle: prediction and stats
League CupRound of 16Kick-off on October 29, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool, Merseyside
The Footlab AI model makes Everton the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Newcastle. The most likely score is 1-1. If Everton wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 3,247 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Everton vs Newcastle?
A very open match: only 13 Elo points separate Everton (2,204) and Newcastle (2,217).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Everton vs Newcastle
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Everton
4-2-3-1- 11T. Barry
- 8K. Dewsbury-Hall
- 37J. Garner
- 45H. Armstrong
- 22B. Johnson
- 10J. Grealish
- 6J. Tarkowski
- 16V. Mykolenko
- 34M. Röhl
- 2A. Maitland-Niles
- 1J. Pickford
Newcastle
4-2-3-1- 9Y. Wissa
- 11H. Barnes
- 28J. Willock
- 6Nico González
- 20M. Fernandez-Pardo
- 23J. Murphy
- 4S. Botman
- 3L. Hall
- 12M. Thiaw
- 67L. Miley
- 21L. Horníček
Computed on October 24, 2026 at 04:43 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Everton have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Newcastle have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Arsenal(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Chelsea(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Hull City(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ipswich(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Wolves(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Coventry(away) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Hull City(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Leeds(away) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Millwall(away) | 1-0 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Everton wins, 2 draws, 1 Newcastle win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | Newcastle 1-3 Everton | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Newcastle 2-3 Everton | Premier League |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Everton 1-4 Newcastle | Premier League |
| May 25, 2025 | Newcastle 0-1 Everton | Premier League |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Everton 0-0 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Apr 2, 2024 | Newcastle 1-1 Everton | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Everton score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Newcastle score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Newcastle | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Everton vs Newcastle?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Everton vs Newcastle?
- The Footlab AI model makes Everton the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Newcastle.
- Where and when is Everton vs Newcastle played?
- Everton vs Newcastle is played on October 29, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Hill Dickinson Stadium, in the League Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.