Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: prediction and stats
League CupRound of 16Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset
The Footlab AI model makes Bournemouth the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Aston Villa. The most likely score is 1-1. If Bournemouth wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 3,253 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
On Elo ratings, Bournemouth has 2,294 points and Aston Villa 2,331.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Bournemouth
4-4-2- 9Evanilson
- 19J. Kluivert
- 16M. Tavernier
- 12T. Adams
- 10R. Christie
- 11B. Doak
- 14António Silva
- 5J. Hill
- 3A. Truffert
- 15A. Smith
- 1Đ. Petrović
Aston Villa
4-2-3-1- 11N. Jackson
- 35João Gomes
- 7J. McGinn
- 8B. Kamara
- 47Alysson Edward
- 44J. Manzambi
- 3V. Lindelöf
- 14Pau Torres
- 2M. Cash
- 5T. Mings
- 1Z. Suzuki
Computed on October 24, 2026 at 10:38 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bournemouth have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Aston Villa have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | AC Milan(home) | 3-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Sunderland(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Sturm Graz(home) | 3-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 1-5 | Premier League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Liverpool(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Manchester City(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Viking(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Newcastle(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(home) | 6-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Brentford(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Bournemouth wins, 3 draws, 3 Aston Villa wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Bournemouth 1-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Aston Villa 4-0 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| May 10, 2025 | Bournemouth 0-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Aston Villa 1-1 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Aston Villa 3-1 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| Dec 3, 2023 | Bournemouth 2-2 Aston Villa | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Bournemouth vs Aston Villa on Feb 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bournemouth score 2.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Aston Villa score 1.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 2.6 | 1.4 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Aston Villa | 1.9 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bournemouth the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Aston Villa.
- Where and when is Bournemouth vs Aston Villa played?
- Bournemouth vs Aston Villa is played on October 28, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Vitality Stadium, in the League Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.