EVV vs Groene Ster: prediction and stats
Derde DivisieRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Sportpark In de Bandert (EVV), Echt-Susteren
The Footlab model makes EVV the favourite at 51%, against 21% for a draw and 27% for Groene Ster. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win EVV vs Groene Ster?
A very open match: only 24 Elo points separate EVV (1,611) and Groene Ster (1,587).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, EVV have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Groene Ster have 4, 0 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | GOES(away) | 2-3 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ijsselmeervogels(away) | 3-10 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | MVV(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | SteDoCo(home) | 1-1 | Derde Divisie - Relegation Round |
| Jun 3, 2026 | SteDoCo(away) | 1-0 | Derde Divisie - Relegation Round |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Excelsior Maassluis(away) | 1-3 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Roosendaal(home) | 1-3 | Derde Divisie |
| May 23, 2026 | ASWH(home) | 3-1 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| May 16, 2026 | TOGB(away) | 1-5 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| May 9, 2026 | Kloetinge(home) | 1-2 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 EVV win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Groene Ster win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2022 | Groene Ster 3-2 EVV | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Oct 30, 2021 | EVV 0-0 Groene Ster | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Feb 1, 2020 | EVV 2-1 Groene Ster | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Sep 21, 2019 | Groene Ster 1-1 EVV | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
How many goals should we expect?
EVV score 1.3 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Groene Ster score 1.2 and concede 2.6. The model gives a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EVV | 1.3 | 2.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Groene Ster | 1.2 | 2.6 | 1 | 10/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
EVV sit 15th in Derde Divisie (0 points from 1 matches) and Groene Ster sit 17th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | EVV | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 | Groene Ster | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for EVV vs Groene Ster?
- The Footlab model makes EVV the favourite at 51%, against 21% for a draw and 27% for Groene Ster.
- Where and when is EVV vs Groene Ster played?
- EVV vs Groene Ster is played on September 20, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Sportpark In de Bandert (EVV), in the Derde Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 73% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.