Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 28Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam
The Footlab model makes Excelsior the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for PEC Zwolle. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle?
A very open match: only 56 Elo points separate Excelsior (1,931) and PEC Zwolle (1,875).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Excelsior have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; PEC Zwolle have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cambuur(away) | 4-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | De Graafschap(away) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Heracles(away) | 5-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | NAC Breda(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Heerenveen(away) | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Twente(away) | 1-3 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ajax(home) | 0-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hannover 96(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | AEK Athens FC(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Excelsior win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 PEC Zwolle win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | PEC Zwolle 2-2 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Excelsior 2-1 PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
| Apr 6, 2024 | PEC Zwolle 2-1 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Excelsior 2-4 PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
| Dec 15, 2020 | Excelsior 2-0 PEC Zwolle | KNVB Beker |
| Mar 17, 2019 | Excelsior 0-2 PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior on Apr 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Excelsior score 2.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; PEC Zwolle score 1.2 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | 2.6 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| PEC Zwolle | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Excelsior sit 10th in Eredivisie (3 points from 2 matches) and PEC Zwolle sit 14th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle?
- The Footlab model makes Excelsior the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for PEC Zwolle.
- Where and when is Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle played?
- Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle is played on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.