Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 28Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam
The Footlab AI model makes Excelsior the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for PEC Zwolle. The most likely score is 1-1. If Excelsior wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,422 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle?
A very open match: only 98 Elo points separate Excelsior (1,919) and PEC Zwolle (1,821).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Excelsior
4-3-3- 19D. Garden
- 30Á. Þorsteinsson
- 7A. Sliti
- 3R. Meissen
- 20L. Hartjes
- 8I. Yegoian
- 14J. Plug
- 4C. Widell
- 2Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira
- 15S. Janssen
- 1S. van Gassel
PEC Zwolle
4-2-3-1- 10K. Kostons
- 8T. Sommer
- 11D. Mbayo
- 22I. Cissoko
- 25T. Oosting
- 30R. Thomas
- 24N. Viergever
- 28S. Graves
- 3O. Aertssen
- 2S. Floranus
- 1J. Schendelaar
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 05:10 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Excelsior have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; PEC Zwolle have 3, 1 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Groningen(home) | 1-5 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Utrecht(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 8, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Willem II(away) | 3-0 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Cambuur(home) | 0-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Groningen(away) | 0-3 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Feyenoord(home) | 0-7 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 29, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(home) | 1-3 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Excelsior wins, 1 draw, 3 PEC Zwolle wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | PEC Zwolle 2-2 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Excelsior 2-1 PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
| Apr 6, 2024 | PEC Zwolle 2-1 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Excelsior 2-4 PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
| Dec 15, 2020 | Excelsior 2-0 PEC Zwolle | KNVB Beker |
| Mar 17, 2019 | Excelsior 0-2 PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior on Apr 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Excelsior score 2.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; PEC Zwolle score 1.0 and concede 2.7. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | 2.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
| PEC Zwolle | 1.0 | 2.7 | 2 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Excelsior sit 9th in Eredivisie (11 points from 8 matches) and PEC Zwolle sit 16th (4 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 11 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 21 | 4 |
A question about Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle?
- The Footlab AI model makes Excelsior the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for PEC Zwolle.
- Where and when is Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle played?
- Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle is played on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.