PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 29Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)MAC³PARK Stadion, Zwolle
The Footlab model makes PSV Eindhoven the favourite at 61%, against 20% for a draw and 19% for PEC Zwolle. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven is a heavy favourite: 2,219 Elo points against 1,875 — a 344-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, PEC Zwolle have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; PSV Eindhoven have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Heerenveen(away) | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Twente(away) | 1-3 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ajax(home) | 0-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hannover 96(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | AEK Athens FC(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Groningen(home) | 5-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Excelsior(away) | 2-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 2, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar(home) | 0-4 | Super Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 PEC Zwolle win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 PSV Eindhoven win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven 6-1 PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
| Oct 4, 2025 | PEC Zwolle 0-4 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| Jan 18, 2025 | PEC Zwolle 3-1 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| Oct 26, 2024 | PSV Eindhoven 6-0 PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
| Feb 24, 2024 | PEC Zwolle 1-7 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| Nov 12, 2023 | PSV Eindhoven 4-0 PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle on Apr 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
PEC Zwolle score 1.2 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; PSV Eindhoven score 3.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| PSV Eindhoven | 3.1 | 1.8 | 2 | 12/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
PEC Zwolle sit 14th in Eredivisie (3 points from 3 matches) and PSV Eindhoven sit 2nd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 7 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven?
- The Footlab model makes PSV Eindhoven the favourite at 61%, against 20% for a draw and 19% for PEC Zwolle.
- Where and when is PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven played?
- PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven is played on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at MAC³PARK Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.