Groningen vs Excelsior: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 29Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Euroborg, Groningen
The Footlab AI model makes Groningen the favourite at 50%, against 23% for a draw and 27% for Excelsior. The most likely score is 1-1. If Groningen wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Groningen vs Excelsior?
On Elo ratings, Groningen has 1,957 points and Excelsior 1,919.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Groningen vs Excelsior
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Groningen
4-2-3-1- 9B. Willumsson
- 24P. Clement
- 8T. de Jonge
- 26T. van Bergen
- 17D. van der Werff
- 11J. Ondrejka
- 3T. Blokzijl
- 14J. Schreuders
- 5M. Rente
- 4M. Csinger
- 1E. Vaessen
Excelsior
4-3-3- 19D. Garden
- 30Á. Þorsteinsson
- 7A. Sliti
- 3R. Meissen
- 20L. Hartjes
- 8I. Yegoian
- 14J. Plug
- 4C. Widell
- 2Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira
- 15S. Janssen
- 1S. van Gassel
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 09:32 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Groningen have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Excelsior have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Excelsior(away) | 5-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 18, 2026 | PEC Zwolle(home) | 3-0 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 12, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(away) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Twente(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(home) | 2-3 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Groningen(home) | 1-5 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Utrecht(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 8, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Willem II(away) | 3-0 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Groningen wins, 0 draws, 2 Excelsior wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Excelsior 1-5 Groningen | Eredivisie |
| May 2, 2026 | Groningen 2-3 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Excelsior 0-2 Groningen | Eredivisie |
| Jan 16, 2024 | Excelsior 0-2 Groningen | KNVB Beker |
| Feb 25, 2023 | Groningen 3-0 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Jan 8, 2023 | Excelsior 1-0 Groningen | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: Excelsior vs Groningen on Oct 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Groningen score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Excelsior score 2.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen | 1.7 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Excelsior | 2.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Groningen sit 6th in Eredivisie (14 points from 8 matches) and Excelsior sit 9th (11 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 14 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 11 |
A question about Groningen vs Excelsior?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Groningen vs Excelsior?
- The Footlab AI model makes Groningen the favourite at 50%, against 23% for a draw and 27% for Excelsior.
- Where and when is Groningen vs Excelsior played?
- Groningen vs Excelsior is played on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Euroborg, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.