Excursionistas vs Argentino de Merlo: prediction and stats
Primera B MetropolitanaRegular Season - 32Kick-off on August 25, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Excursionistas, Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Excursionistas the favourite at 52%, against 28% for a draw and 20% for Argentino de Merlo. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Excursionistas vs Argentino de Merlo?
A very open match: only 85 Elo points separate Excursionistas (1,753) and Argentino de Merlo (1,668).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Excursionistas have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Argentino de Merlo have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Talleres Remedios(away) | 2-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Deportivo Laferrere(home) | 5-3 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Brown DE Adrogue(away) | 0-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Deportivo Armenio(home) | 2-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Flandria(away) | 1-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Arsenal Sarandi(home) | 0-0 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ituzaingó(home) | 1-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Talleres Remedios(away) | 2-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Deportivo Laferrere(home) | 1-3 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Brown DE Adrogue(away) | 0-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Excursionistas win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Argentino de Merlo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2026 | Argentino de Merlo 1-1 Excursionistas | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Nov 28, 2025 | Argentino de Merlo 4-0 Excursionistas | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Excursionistas 1-3 Argentino de Merlo | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jul 5, 2025 | Argentino de Merlo 2-1 Excursionistas | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Excursionistas 0-0 Argentino de Merlo | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jul 6, 2024 | Argentino de Merlo 2-2 Excursionistas | Primera B Metropolitana |
Last archived meeting: Argentino de Merlo vs Excursionistas on Apr 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Excursionistas score 1.8 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Argentino de Merlo score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excursionistas | 1.8 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Argentino de Merlo | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Excursionistas sit 1st in Primera B Metropolitana (41 points from 20 matches) and Argentino de Merlo sit 12th (24 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 20 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 27 | 11 | 41 |
| 1 | Excursionistas | 31 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 47 | 24 | 59 |
| 11 | Argentino de Merlo | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 30 | 30 | 40 |
| 12 | Argentino de Merlo | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 17 | 24 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Excursionistas vs Argentino de Merlo?
- The Footlab model makes Excursionistas the favourite at 52%, against 28% for a draw and 20% for Argentino de Merlo.
- Where and when is Excursionistas vs Argentino de Merlo played?
- Excursionistas vs Argentino de Merlo is played on August 25, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Excursionistas, in the Primera B Metropolitana.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Aug 25, 2026UAI UrquizavsDeportivo Laferrere
- Aug 25, 2026Real PilarvsBrown DE Adrogue
- Aug 25, 2026Villa San CarlosvsFlandria
- Aug 25, 2026San Martín BurzacovsArgentino Quilmes
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