Fatih Karagümrük vs Esenler Erokspor: prediction and stats
1. LigRegular Season - 27Kick-off on February 21, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, İstanbul
The Footlab model makes Fatih Karagümrük the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Esenler Erokspor. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fatih Karagümrük vs Esenler Erokspor?
A very open match: only 37 Elo points separate Fatih Karagümrük (1,869) and Esenler Erokspor (1,906).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fatih Karagümrük have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Esenler Erokspor have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Bursaspor(home) | 2-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ümraniyespor(home) | 2-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Iğdır FK(away) | 0-2 | 1. Lig |
| May 16, 2026 | Alanyaspor(home) | 2-1 | Süper Lig |
| May 9, 2026 | Kocaelispor(away) | 1-0 | Süper Lig |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ümraniyespor(away) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Sarıyer(home) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sivasspor(away) | 0-0 | 1. Lig |
| May 24, 2026 | Çorum FK(home) | 0-2 | 1. Lig |
| May 2, 2026 | Pendikspor(home) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Fatih Karagümrük win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Esenler Erokspor win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2025 | Esenler Erokspor 2-5 Fatih Karagümrük | Türkiye Kupası |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Esenler Erokspor 2-1 Fatih Karagümrük | 1. Lig |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 Esenler Erokspor | 1. Lig |
| Nov 24, 2020 | Fatih Karagümrük 0-3 Esenler Erokspor | Türkiye Kupası |
Last archived meeting: Esenler Erokspor vs Fatih Karagümrük on Dec 3, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Fatih Karagümrük score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Esenler Erokspor score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fatih Karagümrük | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Esenler Erokspor | 1.2 | 1.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fatih Karagümrük sit 6th in 1. Lig (6 points from 3 matches) and Esenler Erokspor sit 11th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Fatih Karagümrük | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 11 | Esenler Erokspor | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fatih Karagümrük vs Esenler Erokspor?
- The Footlab model makes Fatih Karagümrük the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Esenler Erokspor.
- Where and when is Fatih Karagümrük vs Esenler Erokspor played?
- Fatih Karagümrük vs Esenler Erokspor is played on February 21, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, in the 1. Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.