Vanspor FK vs Ümraniyespor: prediction and stats
1. LigRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Atatürk Şehir Stadyumu, Van
The Footlab model makes Vanspor FK the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Ümraniyespor. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vanspor FK vs Ümraniyespor?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate Vanspor FK (1,758) and Ümraniyespor (1,750).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vanspor FK have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Ümraniyespor have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | İstanbulspor(home) | 3-2 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Manisa F.K.(away) | 1-4 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Kayserispor(home) | 0-2 | 1. Lig |
| May 1, 2026 | Hatayspor(away) | 1-3 | 1. Lig |
| Apr 25, 2026 | İstanbulspor(home) | 1-3 | 1. Lig |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Esenler Erokspor(home) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fatih Karagümrük(away) | 1-2 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Mardin 1969(home) | 0-0 | 1. Lig |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Galatasaray(home) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 2, 2026 | Keçiörengücü(home) | 1-4 | 1. Lig |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Vanspor FK win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Ümraniyespor win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Ümraniyespor 1-2 Vanspor FK | 1. Lig |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Vanspor FK 0-1 Ümraniyespor | 1. Lig |
| Mar 25, 2012 | Ümraniyespor 2-1 Vanspor FK | 3. Lig - Group 1 |
| Dec 22, 2011 | Vanspor FK 0-1 Ümraniyespor | 3. Lig - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Ümraniyespor vs Vanspor FK on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Vanspor FK score 1.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Ümraniyespor score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanspor FK | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Ümraniyespor | 1.2 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vanspor FK sit 14th in 1. Lig (3 points from 3 matches) and Ümraniyespor sit 15th (2 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Vanspor FK | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 3 |
| 15 | Ümraniyespor | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vanspor FK vs Ümraniyespor?
- The Footlab model makes Vanspor FK the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Ümraniyespor.
- Where and when is Vanspor FK vs Ümraniyespor played?
- Vanspor FK vs Ümraniyespor is played on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Atatürk Şehir Stadyumu, in the 1. Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.