Fátima vs AD Nogueirense: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 25Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Papa Francisco, Fátima
The Footlab AI model makes Fátima the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for AD Nogueirense. The most likely score is 1-1. If Fátima wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,869 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fátima vs AD Nogueirense?
A very open match: only 42 Elo points separate Fátima (1,845) and AD Nogueirense (1,804).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Fátima vs AD Nogueirense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Fátima
Not enough data to predict the Fátima lineup.
AD Nogueirense
Not enough data to predict the AD Nogueirense lineup.
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 08:08 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fátima have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; AD Nogueirense have 1, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Nazarenos(home) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Vinhais(home) | 4-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Oliveira Hospital(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Os Marialvas(away) | 0-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Naval 1893(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Benfica Castelo Branco(away) | 3-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | UD da Serra(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Naval 1893(home) | 1-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Fazendense(away) | 3-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
How many goals should we expect?
Fátima score 1.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; AD Nogueirense score 1.0 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fátima | 1.7 | 1.2 | 4 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| AD Nogueirense | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1 | 5/9 | 3/9 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fátima sit 9th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (4 points from 4 matches) and AD Nogueirense sit 7th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | AD Nogueirense | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
| 9 | Fátima | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
A question about Fátima vs AD Nogueirense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fátima vs AD Nogueirense?
- The Footlab AI model makes Fátima the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for AD Nogueirense.
- Where and when is Fátima vs AD Nogueirense played?
- Fátima vs AD Nogueirense is played on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Papa Francisco, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.