Os Marialvas vs Mortágua: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 25Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Cantanhede, Cantanhede
The Footlab model makes Os Marialvas the favourite at 38%, against 31% for a draw and 31% for Mortágua. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Os Marialvas vs Mortágua?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate Os Marialvas (1,808) and Mortágua (1,816).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Os Marialvas have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Mortágua have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Oliveira Hospital(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Atlético Malveira(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Jul 22, 2026 | União Lamas(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Lajense(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Naval 1893(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sertanense(away) | 3-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nazarenos(home) | 3-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Eléctrico(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Os Marialvas(home) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Os Marialvas win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Mortágua win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Mortágua 0-2 Os Marialvas | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Os Marialvas 0-1 Mortágua | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Mortágua 0-0 Os Marialvas | Taça de Portugal |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Os Marialvas 0-0 Mortágua | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Mortágua 1-1 Os Marialvas | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
Last archived meeting: Mortágua vs Os Marialvas on Apr 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Os Marialvas score 1.3 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Mortágua score 1.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Os Marialvas | 1.3 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Mortágua | 1.1 | 1.0 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Os Marialvas sit 8th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (3 points from 2 matches) and Mortágua sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mortágua | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Os Marialvas | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Os Marialvas vs Mortágua?
- The Footlab model makes Os Marialvas the favourite at 38%, against 31% for a draw and 31% for Mortágua.
- Where and when is Os Marialvas vs Mortágua played?
- Os Marialvas vs Mortágua is played on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Cantanhede, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.