Os Marialvas vs Mortágua: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 25Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Cantanhede, Cantanhede
The Footlab AI model makes Os Marialvas the favourite at 46%, against 30% for a draw and 24% for Mortágua. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,761 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Os Marialvas vs Mortágua?
A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate Os Marialvas (1,889) and Mortágua (1,838).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Os Marialvas vs Mortágua
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Os Marialvas
Not enough data to predict the Os Marialvas lineup.
Mortágua
4-3-3- 10João Pais
- 45S. Camara
- 27J. Rianco
- 16A. Sena
- 7Artur Simionato
- 23I. Afonso Figueiredo Antunes
- 2H. Lopes
- 39J. Ferrao
- 5C. Silva
- 3T. Pereira
- 55A. Verdade
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 10:34 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Os Marialvas have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Mortágua have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Chaves(away) | 1-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Sertanense(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Ovarense(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Nazarenos(away) | 3-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Fátima(home) | 3-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Benfica Castelo Branco(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Leça(home) | 0-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | UD da Serra(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Fazendense(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 30, 2026 | SC Covilha(away) | 0-0 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Os Marialvas win, 3 draws, 1 Mortágua win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Mortágua 0-2 Os Marialvas | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Os Marialvas 0-1 Mortágua | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Mortágua 0-0 Os Marialvas | Taça de Portugal |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Os Marialvas 0-0 Mortágua | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Mortágua 1-1 Os Marialvas | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
Last archived meeting: Mortágua vs Os Marialvas on Apr 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Os Marialvas score 1.3 and concede 0.4 goals per match over their last 15; Mortágua score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Os Marialvas | 1.3 | 0.4 | 11 | 3/15 | 5/15 |
| Mortágua | 0.9 | 1.1 | 2 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Os Marialvas sit 4th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (9 points from 4 matches) and Mortágua sit 1st (10 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mortágua | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Os Marialvas | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 9 |
A question about Os Marialvas vs Mortágua?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Os Marialvas vs Mortágua?
- The Footlab AI model makes Os Marialvas the favourite at 46%, against 30% for a draw and 24% for Mortágua.
- Where and when is Os Marialvas vs Mortágua played?
- Os Marialvas vs Mortágua is played on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Cantanhede, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.