Where and when is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg played?

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg is played on October 24, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Audi-Sportpark, in the 3. Liga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg: prediction and stats

3. LigaRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Audi-Sportpark, Ingolstadt

FC Ingolstadt 04

MSV Duisburg

The Footlab model makes MSV Duisburg the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for FC Ingolstadt 04. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg?

MSV Duisburg starts as the favourite with a 108-point Elo edge (2,032 vs 1,924).

FC Ingolstadt 04 win35 %

Draw25 %

MSV Duisburg win40 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Ingolstadt 04 have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; MSV Duisburg have 7, 4 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FC Ingolstadt 04
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 15, 2026	Preußen Münster(away)	1-1	3. Liga
Aug 8, 2026	Würzburger Kickers(home)	2-2	3. Liga
Aug 1, 2026	1. FC Heidenheim(away)	1-4	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	RB Leipzig(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 18, 2026	Palermo(home)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs

MSV Duisburg
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	SV Elversberg(home)	1-3	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Verl(away)	4-2	3. Liga
Aug 8, 2026	SV Meppen(home)	3-0	3. Liga
Aug 1, 2026	Sparta Rotterdam(away)	0-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	Arminia Bielefeld(away)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 FC Ingolstadt 04 win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 MSV Duisburg win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 4, 2026	FC Ingolstadt 04 0-0 MSV Duisburg	3. Liga
Sep 27, 2025	MSV Duisburg 2-1 FC Ingolstadt 04	3. Liga
Apr 20, 2024	FC Ingolstadt 04 2-0 MSV Duisburg	3. Liga
Nov 11, 2023	MSV Duisburg 1-2 FC Ingolstadt 04	3. Liga
May 12, 2023	FC Ingolstadt 04 2-0 MSV Duisburg	3. Liga
Nov 12, 2022	MSV Duisburg 0-1 FC Ingolstadt 04	3. Liga

Last archived meeting: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg on Mar 4, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

FC Ingolstadt 04 score 1.6 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; MSV Duisburg score 1.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
FC Ingolstadt 04	1.6	1.5	4	8/15	8/15
MSV Duisburg	1.8	1.3	4	10/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FC Ingolstadt 04 sit 15th in 3. Liga (2 points from 2 matches) and MSV Duisburg sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MSV Duisburg	2	2	0	0	7	2	6
15	FC Ingolstadt 04	2	0	2	0	3	3	2

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg?: The Footlab model makes MSV Duisburg the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for FC Ingolstadt 04.
Where and when is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg played?: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg is played on October 24, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Audi-Sportpark, in the 3. Liga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.