Match

FC Lugano vs FC Thun: prediction and stats

Super LeagueMatchday 17Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio di Cornaredo, Lugano

FC LuganoFC Thun

The Footlab AI model makes FC Lugano the favourite at 66%, against 19% for a draw and 15% for FC Thun. The most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 5,995 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FC Lugano vs FC Thun?

FC Lugano starts as the favourite with a 185-point Elo edge (2,039 vs 1,854).

66%19%15%
FC Lugano winDrawFC Thun win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for FC Lugano vs FC Thun

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

FC Lugano

3-5-1-1
  1. 9A. Ajeti
  1. 21Y. Cimignani
  2. 25U. Bislimi
  3. 8A. Grgić
  4. 27Daniel Dos Santos
  5. 46M. Zanotti
  6. 26Martim Marques
  1. 17L. Mai
  2. 6A. Papadopoulos
  3. 18J. Bichsel
  1. 16D. von Ballmoos

FC Thun

4-4-2
  1. 9F. Dursun
  2. 96B. Labeau
  1. 70N. Reichmuth
  2. 14M. Käit
  3. 16J. Roth
  4. 52Adam Ilic
  1. 19J. Bamert
  2. 47F. Fehr
  3. 2O. Mambwa
  4. 5N. Bürgy
  1. 1N. Steffen

Computed on November 14, 2026 at 07:08 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Lugano have 12 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats; FC Thun have 5, 3 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FC Lugano
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 8, 2026FC ST. Gallen(away)0-5Super League
Nov 5, 2026Kauno Žalgiris(home)3-0UEFA Europa Conference League
Nov 1, 2026FC Basel 1893(home)2-1Super League
Oct 25, 2026FC Thun(away)3-2Super League
Oct 22, 2026Getafe(away)5-2UEFA Europa Conference League
FC Thun
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 8, 2026FC Basel 1893(home)3-3Super League
Nov 5, 2026Heart Of Midlothian(home)3-1UEFA Europa Conference League
Nov 1, 2026Lausanne(away)5-4Super League
Oct 25, 2026FC Lugano(home)2-3Super League
Oct 22, 2026HNK Hajduk Split(home)0-1UEFA Europa Conference League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 5 FC Lugano wins, 0 draws, 1 FC Thun win.

DateScoreCompetition
Oct 25, 2026FC Thun 2-3 FC LuganoSuper League
Apr 25, 2026FC Thun 0-1 FC LuganoSuper League
Apr 4, 2026FC Lugano 1-0 FC ThunSuper League
Nov 22, 2025FC Thun 0-1 FC LuganoSuper League
Jul 27, 2025FC Lugano 1-2 FC ThunSuper League
Feb 10, 2022FC Thun 3-4 FC LuganoSchweizer Cup

Last archived meeting: FC Thun vs FC Lugano on Oct 25, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

FC Lugano score 2.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; FC Thun score 1.9 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
FC Lugano2.71.359/1514/15
FC Thun1.92.1210/1510/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FC Lugano sit 1st in Super League (34 points from 13 matches) and FC Thun sit 8th (14 points from 13 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
1FC Lugano131111361534
8FC Thun13427273714

A question about FC Lugano vs FC Thun?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FC Lugano vs FC Thun?
The Footlab AI model makes FC Lugano the favourite at 66%, against 19% for a draw and 15% for FC Thun.
Where and when is FC Lugano vs FC Thun played?
FC Lugano vs FC Thun is played on December 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio di Cornaredo, in the Super League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: FC Lugano and FC Thun