FC Porto vs Sporting CP: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Do Dragão, Porto
The Footlab AI model makes FC Porto the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Sporting CP. The most likely score is 1-1. If FC Porto wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Porto vs Sporting CP?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate FC Porto (2,454) and Sporting CP (2,484).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for FC Porto vs Sporting CP
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
FC Porto
4-3-3- 11Pepê Aquino
- 7William
- 19André Silva
- 8Victor Mow Froholdt
- 22A. Varela
- 16Hwang In-Beom
- 20Alberto Baio
- 4J. Kiwior
- 5J. Bednarek
- 74Francisco Moura
- 99Diogo Costa
Sporting CP
4-3-3- 10Geny Catamo
- 19N. Irankunda
- 97L. Suárez
- 5Sergi Altimira
- 77I. Doumbia
- 4S. Andersen
- 25Gonçalo Inácio
- 22Iván Fresneda
- 20M. Araújo
- 72Eduardo Quaresma
- 1Rui Silva
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 12:20 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Porto have 13 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats; Sporting CP have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Maritimo(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Casa Pia(away) | 4-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Manchester City(home) | 0-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Lens(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 9, 2026 | SC Braga(away) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Galatasaray(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 FC Porto win, 3 draws, 2 Sporting CP wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2026 | FC Porto 0-0 Sporting CP | Taça de Portugal |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Sporting CP 1-0 FC Porto | Taça de Portugal |
| Feb 9, 2026 | FC Porto 1-1 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Sporting CP 1-2 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 7, 2025 | FC Porto 1-1 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 7, 2025 | Sporting CP 1-0 FC Porto | Taça da Liga |
Last archived meeting: FC Porto vs Sporting CP on Apr 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FC Porto score 1.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Sporting CP score 2.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 1.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Sporting CP | 2.9 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Porto sit 1st in Primeira Liga (24 points from 8 matches) and Sporting CP sit 3rd (18 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 24 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 9 | 18 |
A question about FC Porto vs Sporting CP?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Porto vs Sporting CP?
- The Footlab AI model makes FC Porto the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Sporting CP.
- Where and when is FC Porto vs Sporting CP played?
- FC Porto vs Sporting CP is played on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Do Dragão, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.