Moreirense vs Santa Clara: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos
The Footlab model makes Santa Clara the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Moreirense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Moreirense vs Santa Clara?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Moreirense (2,005) and Santa Clara (2,059).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Moreirense have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Santa Clara have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Arouca(away) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Amarante(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | GIL Vicente(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Academico Viseu(away) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Nacional(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Moreirense win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Santa Clara win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | Santa Clara 2-1 Moreirense | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Moreirense 1-0 Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Santa Clara 0-1 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Santa Clara 1-1 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Moreirense 1-0 Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 24, 2024 | Santa Clara 4-2 Moreirense | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Santa Clara vs Moreirense on Jul 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Moreirense score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Santa Clara score 1.6 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | 1.0 | 1.7 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Santa Clara | 1.6 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Moreirense sit 16th in Primeira Liga (1 points from 2 matches) and Santa Clara sit 3rd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Santa Clara | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 16 | Moreirense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Moreirense vs Santa Clara?
- The Footlab model makes Santa Clara the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Moreirense.
- Where and when is Moreirense vs Santa Clara played?
- Moreirense vs Santa Clara is played on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.