Casa Pia vs SC Braga: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Nacional, Jamor, Oeiras
The Footlab AI model makes SC Braga the favourite at 56%, against 26% for a draw and 18% for Casa Pia. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,700 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Casa Pia vs SC Braga?
SC Braga starts as the favourite with a 218-point Elo edge (2,201 vs 1,983).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Casa Pia vs SC Braga
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Casa Pia
4-2-3-1- 90Cassiano
- 11M. El Boukammiri
- 80L. Ofori
- 77B. Pauwels
- 70João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo
- 16Silvi
- 18Geraldes
- 75Pedro Rosas
- 43David Sousa
- 3Kaly
- 1P. Sequeira
SC Braga
3-4-2-1- 17J. Milošević
- 10Pau Victor
- 21Ricardo Horta
- 29J. Gorby
- 2Víctor Gómez
- 11Gabriel Silva
- 8João Moutinho
- 14G. Lagerbielke
- 26B. Arrey-Mbi
- 22Sergio Barcia
- 31Bernardo Fontes
Computed on October 27, 2026 at 09:11 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Casa Pia have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; SC Braga have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Alpendorada(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | FC Porto(home) | 1-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Nacional(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Gent(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Oct 19, 2026 | GIL Vicente(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 15, 2026 | FC Copenhagen(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Sporting CP(home) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Casa Pia wins, 0 draws, 4 SC Braga wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2026 | Casa Pia 0-1 SC Braga | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 26, 2025 | SC Braga 4-0 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| May 10, 2025 | Casa Pia 2-1 SC Braga | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 29, 2024 | SC Braga 1-2 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| May 5, 2024 | SC Braga 4-3 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 30, 2023 | Casa Pia 1-3 SC Braga | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Casa Pia score 0.8 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; SC Braga score 0.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | 0.8 | 1.7 | 5 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
| SC Braga | 0.9 | 0.9 | 8 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Casa Pia sit 16th in Primeira Liga (7 points from 9 matches) and SC Braga sit 9th (11 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SC Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 11 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 7 |
A question about Casa Pia vs SC Braga?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Casa Pia vs SC Braga?
- The Footlab AI model makes SC Braga the favourite at 56%, against 26% for a draw and 18% for Casa Pia.
- Where and when is Casa Pia vs SC Braga played?
- Casa Pia vs SC Braga is played on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Nacional, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.