FC Rostov vs Rodina Moskva: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 21Kick-off on March 20, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Rostov Arena, Rostov-na-Donu
The Footlab model makes FC Rostov the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Rodina Moskva. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Rostov vs Rodina Moskva?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate FC Rostov (1,914) and Rodina Moskva (1,906).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Rostov have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Rodina Moskva have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Akhmat(away) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Lokomotiv(home) | 1-0 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rubin(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | CSKA Moscow(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Akron(away) | 4-0 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Dynamo(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | FC Orenburg(home) | 1-4 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Akron(home) | 3-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Zenit(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Rubin(home) | 5-0 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 FC Rostov win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Rodina Moskva win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | Rodina Moskva 2-4 FC Rostov | Premier League |
| Feb 1, 2026 | FC Rostov 0-1 Rodina Moskva | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 19, 2025 | FC Rostov 3-2 Rodina Moskva | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 23, 2024 | Rodina Moskva 2-1 FC Rostov | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Rodina Moskva vs FC Rostov on Jul 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FC Rostov score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Rodina Moskva score 1.6 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Rostov | 1.4 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Rodina Moskva | 1.6 | 1.8 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Rostov sit 12th in Premier League (5 points from 5 matches) and Rodina Moskva sit 13th (4 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | FC Rostov | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 |
| 13 | Rodina Moskva | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Rostov vs Rodina Moskva?
- The Footlab model makes FC Rostov the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Rodina Moskva.
- Where and when is FC Rostov vs Rodina Moskva played?
- FC Rostov vs Rodina Moskva is played on March 20, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Rostov Arena, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.