Where and when is FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern München played?

FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern München is played on September 5, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Arena AufSchalke, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern München: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 2Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Arena AufSchalke, Gelsenkirchen

FC Schalke 04

Bayern München

The Footlab model makes Bayern München the favourite at 67%, against 18% for a draw and 14% for FC Schalke 04. The most likely score is 1-2.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern München?

Bayern München is a heavy favourite: 2,516 Elo points against 2,042 — a 474-point gap.

FC Schalke 04 win14 %

Draw18 %

Bayern München win67 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Schalke 04 have 10 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats; Bayern München have 11, 2 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FC Schalke 04
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 16, 2026	Real Madrid(home)	0-3	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Atalanta(home)	0-3	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Hessen Kassel(away)	5-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	Fagiano Okayama(home)	3-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 22, 2026	Metalist 1925 Kharkiv(away)	2-0	Friendlies Clubs

Bayern München
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 18, 2026	1. FC Heidenheim(away)	4-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 15, 2026	RB Leipzig(home)	3-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 7, 2026	Aston Villa(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 4, 2026	Jeju United FC(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	SV Wehen(away)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 FC Schalke 04 win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Bayern München win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 13, 2023	Bayern München 6-0 FC Schalke 04	Bundesliga
Nov 12, 2022	FC Schalke 04 0-2 Bayern München	Bundesliga
Jan 24, 2021	FC Schalke 04 0-4 Bayern München	Bundesliga
Sep 18, 2020	Bayern München 8-0 FC Schalke 04	Bundesliga
Mar 3, 2020	FC Schalke 04 0-1 Bayern München	DFB Pokal
Jan 25, 2020	Bayern München 5-0 FC Schalke 04	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Bayern München vs FC Schalke 04 on May 13, 2023

How many goals should we expect?

FC Schalke 04 score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Bayern München score 2.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
FC Schalke 04	1.8	1.3	5	6/15	10/15
Bayern München	2.9	1.7	3	12/15	12/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bayern München	34	28	5	1	122	36	89

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern München?: The Footlab model makes Bayern München the favourite at 67%, against 18% for a draw and 14% for FC Schalke 04.
Where and when is FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern München played?: FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern München is played on September 5, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Arena AufSchalke, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.