Where and when is Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 played?

Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 is played on September 5, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Volksparkstadion, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 2Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

Hamburger SV

FSV Mainz 05

The Footlab model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 51%, against 22% for a draw and 27% for Hamburger SV. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 19, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05?

A very open match: only 94 Elo points separate Hamburger SV (2,043) and FSV Mainz 05 (2,136).

Hamburger SV win27 %

Draw22 %

FSV Mainz 05 win51 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hamburger SV have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; FSV Mainz 05 have 9, 2 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Hamburger SV
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 15, 2026	Toulouse(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Lille(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Everton(home)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 18, 2026	Rapid Vienna(away)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs
May 16, 2026	Bayer Leverkusen(away)	1-1	Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 15, 2026	Bournemouth(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Paris FC(home)	4-0	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Udinese(away)	3-3	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 31, 2026	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai(home)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	Holstein Kiel(home)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Hamburger SV win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 FSV Mainz 05 win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Feb 20, 2026	FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Hamburger SV	Bundesliga
Oct 5, 2025	Hamburger SV 4-0 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga
Mar 3, 2018	Hamburger SV 0-0 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga
Oct 14, 2017	FSV Mainz 05 3-2 Hamburger SV	Bundesliga
May 7, 2017	Hamburger SV 0-0 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga
Dec 17, 2016	FSV Mainz 05 3-1 Hamburger SV	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV on Feb 20, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Hamburger SV score 1.4 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; FSV Mainz 05 score 2.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Hamburger SV	1.4	1.9	0	13/15	11/15
FSV Mainz 05	2.5	1.3	6	7/15	10/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Hamburger SV sit 13th in Bundesliga (38 points from 34 matches) and FSV Mainz 05 sit 10th (40 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
10	FSV Mainz 05	34	10	10	14	44	53	40
13	Hamburger SV	34	9	11	14	40	54	38

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05?: The Footlab model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 51%, against 22% for a draw and 27% for Hamburger SV.
Where and when is Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 played?: Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 is played on September 5, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Volksparkstadion, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.