Where and when is Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin played?

Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin is played on September 5, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at BayArena, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 2Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)BayArena, Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen

Union Berlin

The Footlab model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 66%, against 18% for a draw and 16% for Union Berlin. The most likely score is 2-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 19, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?

Bayer Leverkusen starts as the favourite with a 262-point Elo edge (2,267 vs 2,004).

Bayer Leverkusen win66 %

Draw18 %

Union Berlin win16 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bayer Leverkusen have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; Union Berlin have 4, 4 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Bayer Leverkusen
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 15, 2026	Newcastle(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 12, 2026	Nottingham Forest(away)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Sevilla(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Rot-Weiß Essen(home)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026	Genk(home)	4-0	Friendlies Clubs

Union Berlin
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 15, 2026	Ipswich(home)	2-4	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 9, 2026	Aris(home)	3-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 2, 2026	Cagliari(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Dynamo Dresden(away)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 18, 2026	FC Aarau(away)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Bayer Leverkusen win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Union Berlin win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Feb 21, 2026	Union Berlin 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen	Bundesliga
Oct 4, 2025	Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 Union Berlin	Bundesliga
Apr 12, 2025	Bayer Leverkusen 0-0 Union Berlin	Bundesliga
Nov 30, 2024	Union Berlin 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen	Bundesliga
Apr 6, 2024	Union Berlin 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen	Bundesliga
Nov 12, 2023	Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 Union Berlin	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen on Feb 21, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Bayer Leverkusen score 2.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Union Berlin score 2.3 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Bayer Leverkusen	2.5	1.2	4	10/15	12/15
Union Berlin	2.3	1.9	1	13/15	12/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Bayer Leverkusen sit 6th in Bundesliga (59 points from 34 matches) and Union Berlin sit 11th (39 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
6	Bayer Leverkusen	34	17	8	9	68	47	59
11	Union Berlin	34	10	9	15	44	58	39

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?: The Footlab model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 66%, against 18% for a draw and 16% for Union Berlin.
Where and when is Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin played?: Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin is played on September 5, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at BayArena, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.