Match

FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 9Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)MEWA ARENA, Mainz

FSV Mainz 05Bayern München

The Footlab AI model makes Bayern München the favourite at 63%, against 19% for a draw and 18% for FSV Mainz 05. The most likely score is 1-2.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?

Bayern München is a heavy favourite: 2,534 Elo points against 2,163, a 371-point gap.

18%19%63%
FSV Mainz 05 winDrawBayern München win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

FSV Mainz 05

3-5-2
  1. 23S. Becker
  2. 9P. Tietz
  1. 10N. Amiri
  2. 7Lee Jae-Sung
  3. 19A. Caci
  4. 6K. Sano
  5. 2P. Mwene
  1. 3F. Gruber
  2. 48K. Potulski
  3. 4S. Posch
  1. 1A. Schwolow

Bayern München

4-2-3-1
  1. 9H. Kane
  1. 45A. Pavlović
  2. 17M. Olise
  3. 6J. Kimmich
  4. 14L. Díaz
  5. 10J. Musiala
  1. 2D. Upamecano
  2. 44J. Stanišić
  3. 19A. Davies
  4. 4J. Tah
  1. 1M. Neuer

Known absences

  • N. BrownOut · Injured

Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:54 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FSV Mainz 05 have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Bayern München have 13, 1 and 1.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FSV Mainz 05
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 3, 2026Waldhof Mannheim(away)3-0Friendlies Clubs
Sep 19, 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach(away)4-3Bundesliga
Sep 12, 2026Eintracht Frankfurt(home)1-3Bundesliga
Sep 6, 2026Hamburger SV(away)5-0Bundesliga
Aug 29, 2026SC Paderborn 07(home)0-0Bundesliga
Bayern München
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 18, 2026Union Berlin(home)7-0Bundesliga
Sep 13, 2026SV Elversberg(away)2-1Bundesliga
Sep 10, 2026Bodo/Glimt(home)5-0UEFA Champions League
Sep 5, 2026FC Schalke 04(away)0-0Bundesliga
Sep 2, 2026VfL Osnabrück(away)4-1DFB Pokal

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 FSV Mainz 05 win, 1 draw, 4 Bayern München wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 25, 2026FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
Dec 14, 2025Bayern München 2-2 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Apr 26, 2025Bayern München 3-0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Dec 14, 2024FSV Mainz 05 2-1 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
Oct 30, 2024FSV Mainz 05 0-4 Bayern MünchenDFB Pokal
Mar 9, 2024Bayern München 8-1 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München on Apr 25, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

FSV Mainz 05 score 3.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Bayern München score 3.1 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 74% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
FSV Mainz 053.50.996/1512/15
Bayern München3.10.8510/1513/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FSV Mainz 05 sit 6th in Bundesliga (7 points from 4 matches) and Bayern München sit 2nd (10 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
2Bayern München431014210
6FSV Mainz 0542111067

A question about FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?
The Footlab AI model makes Bayern München the favourite at 63%, against 19% for a draw and 18% for FSV Mainz 05.
Where and when is FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München played?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München is played on November 7, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at MEWA ARENA, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 74% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: FSV Mainz 05 and Bayern München

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