Where and when is FC St. Pauli vs VfL Osnabrück played?

FC St. Pauli vs VfL Osnabrück is played on May 8, 2027 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at Millerntor-Stadion, in the 2. Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

FC St. Pauli vs VfL Osnabrück: prediction and stats

2. BundesligaRegular Season - 32Kick-off on May 8, 2027 at 11:30 AM (UTC)Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

FC St. Pauli

VfL Osnabrück

The Footlab model makes FC St. Pauli the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for VfL Osnabrück. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FC St. Pauli vs VfL Osnabrück?

A very open match: only 48 Elo points separate FC St. Pauli (1,960) and VfL Osnabrück (2,008).

FC St. Pauli win38 %

Draw26 %

VfL Osnabrück win36 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC St. Pauli have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; VfL Osnabrück have 8, 2 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FC St. Pauli
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Rot-Weiß Essen(away)	0-2	DFB Pokal
Aug 14, 2026	Holstein Kiel(away)	2-2	2. Bundesliga
Aug 9, 2026	SpVgg Greuther Fürth(home)	1-1	2. Bundesliga
Aug 1, 2026	Deportivo La Coruna(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 24, 2026	Bournemouth(away)	1-4	Friendlies Clubs

VfL Osnabrück
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 18, 2026	Spelle-Venhaus(away)	5-3	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 15, 2026	1. FC Magdeburg(home)	0-3	2. Bundesliga
Aug 8, 2026	1. FC Heidenheim(away)	3-4	2. Bundesliga
Aug 1, 2026	SC Paderborn 07(home)	0-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 24, 2026	Nordhorn(away)	7-0	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 FC St. Pauli win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 VfL Osnabrück win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 12, 2024	FC St. Pauli 3-1 VfL Osnabrück	2. Bundesliga
Dec 9, 2023	VfL Osnabrück 1-1 FC St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga
Mar 21, 2021	VfL Osnabrück 1-2 FC St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga
Nov 27, 2020	FC St. Pauli 0-1 VfL Osnabrück	2. Bundesliga
Mar 1, 2020	FC St. Pauli 3-1 VfL Osnabrück	2. Bundesliga
Sep 22, 2019	VfL Osnabrück 1-1 FC St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: FC St. Pauli vs VfL Osnabrück on May 12, 2024

How many goals should we expect?

FC St. Pauli score 1.3 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; VfL Osnabrück score 2.2 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
FC St. Pauli	1.3	2.0	0	12/15	10/15
VfL Osnabrück	2.2	1.6	4	7/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FC St. Pauli sit 13th in 2. Bundesliga (2 points from 2 matches) and VfL Osnabrück sit 18th (0 points from 2 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
13	FC St. Pauli	2	0	2	0	3	3	2
18	VfL Osnabrück	2	0	0	2	3	7	0

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FC St. Pauli vs VfL Osnabrück?: The Footlab model makes FC St. Pauli the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for VfL Osnabrück.
Where and when is FC St. Pauli vs VfL Osnabrück played?: FC St. Pauli vs VfL Osnabrück is played on May 8, 2027 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at Millerntor-Stadion, in the 2. Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.