Where and when is FC Thun vs Lech Poznan played?

FC Thun vs Lech Poznan is played on August 27, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Stockhorn Arena, in the UEFA Europa League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

FC Thun vs Lech Poznan: prediction and stats

UEFA Europa LeaguePlay-offsKick-off on August 27, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Stockhorn Arena, Thun

FC Thun

Lech Poznan

The Footlab model makes Lech Poznan the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for FC Thun. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 20, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FC Thun vs Lech Poznan?

Lech Poznan starts as the favourite with a 159-point Elo edge (2,123 vs 1,964).

FC Thun win30 %

Draw27 %

Lech Poznan win43 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Thun have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Lech Poznan have 11, 3 and 1.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FC Thun
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 16, 2026	Saxon Sports(away)	6-0	Schweizer Cup
Aug 13, 2026	Vikingur Reykjavik(away)	2-3	UEFA Europa League
Aug 9, 2026	FC Basel 1893(away)	2-4	Super League
Aug 6, 2026	Vikingur Reykjavik(home)	3-0	UEFA Europa League
Aug 1, 2026	BSC Young Boys(home)	0-6	Super League

Lech Poznan
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 14, 2026	KI Klaksvik(away)	5-0	UEFA Europa League
Aug 9, 2026	Piast Gliwice(home)	3-0	Ekstraklasa
Aug 6, 2026	KI Klaksvik(home)	1-0	UEFA Europa League
Aug 1, 2026	Wieczysta Kraków(away)	2-1	Ekstraklasa
Jul 29, 2026	Aarhus(home)	0-3	UEFA Champions League

How many goals should we expect?

FC Thun score 1.7 and concede 2.4 goals per match over their last 15; Lech Poznan score 2.4 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
FC Thun	1.7	2.4	2	10/15	10/15
Lech Poznan	2.4	0.7	7	7/15	11/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FC Thun vs Lech Poznan?: The Footlab model makes Lech Poznan the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for FC Thun.
Where and when is FC Thun vs Lech Poznan played?: FC Thun vs Lech Poznan is played on August 27, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Stockhorn Arena, in the UEFA Europa League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.