Match

FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split: prediction and stats

UEFA Europa Conference LeagueLeague Stage - 2Kick-off on October 22, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Stockhorn Arena, Thun

FC ThunHNK Hajduk Split

The Footlab AI model makes HNK Hajduk Split the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for FC Thun. The most likely score is 1-1. If HNK Hajduk Split wins, the most likely score is 1-2.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split?

HNK Hajduk Split starts as the favourite with a 195-point Elo edge (1,973 vs 1,778).

28%26%46%
FC Thun winDrawHNK Hajduk Split win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

FC Thun

4-4-2
  1. 80S. Lengen
  2. 9F. Dursun
  1. 16J. Roth
  2. 13N. Zoukit
  3. 30N. Maier
  4. 52Adam Ilic
  1. 18T. Strannegård
  2. 19J. Bamert
  3. 47F. Fehr
  4. 5N. Bürgy
  1. 1N. Steffen

HNK Hajduk Split

4-2-3-1
  1. 11M. Šego
  1. 23M. Šotiček
  2. 9Dali
  3. 7A. Sanyang
  4. 20Alberto del Moral
  5. 8K. Fayad
  1. 15D. Marešić
  2. 14R. Raci
  3. 32Š. Hrgović
  4. 22M. Acapandié
  1. 33T. Silić

Computed on October 14, 2026 at 12:32 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Thun have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; HNK Hajduk Split have 10, 2 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FC Thun
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 10, 2026FC Zurich(away)2-4Super League
Oct 3, 2026SC Kriens(home)2-0Friendlies Clubs
Sep 20, 2026FC Vaduz(away)2-1Super League
Sep 16, 2026Servette FC(home)2-4Super League
Sep 12, 2026Grasshoppers(home)0-1Super League
HNK Hajduk Split
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 10, 2026Dinamo Zagreb(home)2-1HNL
Sep 20, 2026HNK Rijeka(away)0-3HNL
Sep 13, 2026NK Slaven Belupo(home)1-0HNL
Sep 8, 2026Vardarac(away)2-0Cup
Sep 6, 2026Rudes(away)4-0HNL

How many goals should we expect?

FC Thun score 1.9 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; HNK Hajduk Split score 2.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
FC Thun1.92.548/1512/15
HNK Hajduk Split2.31.167/1511/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

A question about FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split?
The Footlab AI model makes HNK Hajduk Split the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for FC Thun.
Where and when is FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split played?
FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split is played on October 22, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Stockhorn Arena, in the UEFA Europa Conference League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: FC Thun and HNK Hajduk Split

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