FC Urartu vs Ararat: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Urartu Stadium, Yerevan
The Footlab model makes FC Urartu the favourite at 72%, against 16% for a draw and 11% for Ararat. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Urartu vs Ararat?
FC Urartu starts as the favourite with a 235-point Elo edge (1,709 vs 1,473).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Urartu have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Ararat have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Shirak(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Syunik(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ararat-Armenia(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Pyunik Yerevan(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Spaeri(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Pyunik Yerevan(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | BKMA(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Sardarapat(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Alashkert(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Andranik(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 FC Urartu win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Ararat win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Ararat 0-1 FC Urartu | Premier League |
| Apr 1, 2026 | FC Urartu 2-3 Ararat | Cup |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Ararat 0-3 FC Urartu | Cup |
| Nov 3, 2025 | Ararat 0-1 FC Urartu | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2025 | FC Urartu 6-0 Ararat | Premier League |
| May 24, 2025 | Ararat 2-4 FC Urartu | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
FC Urartu score 1.4 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Ararat score 1.1 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Urartu | 1.4 | 1.7 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Ararat | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Urartu sit 5th in Premier League (7 points from 4 matches) and Ararat sit 9th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | FC Urartu | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 7 |
| 9 | Ararat | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Urartu vs Ararat?
- The Footlab model makes FC Urartu the favourite at 72%, against 16% for a draw and 11% for Ararat.
- Where and when is FC Urartu vs Ararat played?
- FC Urartu vs Ararat is played on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Urartu Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.