Feirense vs Tondela: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Marcolino de Castro, Santa Maria da Feira
The Footlab AI model makes Tondela the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Feirense. The most likely score is 1-1. If Tondela wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,495 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Feirense vs Tondela?
Tondela starts as the favourite with a 146-point Elo edge (2,003 vs 1,857).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Feirense vs Tondela
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Feirense
3-4-3- 25Henrique Pereira
- 19Alexandre Guedes
- 47Piri
- 77Gui Meira
- 90Luisinho
- 24M. Diaby
- 22Samad Popoola
- 14Pedro Pinto
- 4Antonio Leal
- 20João Oliveira
- 26Diego Altube
Tondela
4-2-3-1- 19Tómané
- 20Hugo Félix
- 7Cascavel
- 97Cícero
- 37Sarará
- 8Hélder Tavares
- 15Carraça
- 12Zé Ricardo
- 4Christian Marques
- 6Farru
- 28Araujo Carlos
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 10:52 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Feirense have 1 win, 5 draws and 9 defeats; Tondela have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Farense(away) | 1-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Salgueiros(away) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Chaves(away) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Sporting CP B(home) | 1-3 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | AVS(away) | 0-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Torreense(home) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Imortal Albufeira(away) | 5-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Portimonense(away) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | FC Porto B(home) | 3-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 28, 2026 | União de Leiria(away) | 0-2 | Segunda Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Feirense wins, 3 draws, 3 Tondela wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2025 | Tondela 2-1 Feirense | Segunda Liga |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Feirense 1-1 Tondela | Segunda Liga |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Feirense 1-3 Tondela | Segunda Liga |
| Nov 18, 2023 | Tondela 2-0 Feirense | Segunda Liga |
| May 6, 2023 | Tondela 1-1 Feirense | Segunda Liga |
| Dec 23, 2022 | Feirense 1-1 Tondela | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Feirense score 0.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Tondela score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feirense | 0.6 | 1.4 | 3 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Tondela | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Feirense sit 18th in Segunda Liga (1 point from 7 matches) and Tondela sit 7th (12 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tondela | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 12 |
| 18 | Feirense | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
A question about Feirense vs Tondela?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Feirense vs Tondela?
- The Footlab AI model makes Tondela the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Feirense.
- Where and when is Feirense vs Tondela played?
- Feirense vs Tondela is played on December 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Marcolino de Castro, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.