Match

Farense vs Portimonense: prediction and stats

Segunda LigaRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio de São Lúis, Faro

FarensePortimonense

The Footlab model makes Farense the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Portimonense. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Farense vs Portimonense?

A very open match: only 77 Elo points separate Farense (1,946) and Portimonense (1,869).

Farense win42 %
Draw30 %
Portimonense win28 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Farense have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Portimonense have 8, 3 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Farense
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 24, 2026Felgueiras 1932(home)1-1Segunda Liga
Aug 16, 2026FC Porto B(away)3-1Segunda Liga
Aug 9, 2026Torreense(home)2-1Segunda Liga
Aug 1, 2026Fulham(home)1-2Friendlies Clubs
Jul 18, 2026Benfica B(home)1-1Friendlies Clubs
Portimonense
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 21, 2026Benfica B(away)1-1Segunda Liga
Aug 16, 2026Vizela(home)2-0Segunda Liga
Aug 8, 2026Penafiel(away)1-0Segunda Liga
Jul 31, 2026Nottingham Forest(home)1-2Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026Estrela(away)1-1Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Farense win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Portimonense win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
May 17, 2026Portimonense 1-0 FarenseSegunda Liga
Jan 3, 2026Farense 0-1 PortimonenseSegunda Liga
Aug 2, 2024Portimonense 0-0 FarenseFriendlies Clubs
May 18, 2024Farense 1-3 PortimonensePrimeira Liga
Jan 12, 2024Portimonense 1-0 FarensePrimeira Liga
Aug 5, 2023Farense 2-1 PortimonenseFriendlies Clubs

Last archived meeting: Portimonense vs Farense on May 17, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Farense score 1.1 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Portimonense score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Farense1.10.757/155/15
Portimonense1.31.148/156/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Farense sit 2nd in Segunda Liga (7 points from 3 matches) and Portimonense sit 4th (7 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
2Farense3210637
4Portimonense3210417

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Farense vs Portimonense?
The Footlab model makes Farense the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Portimonense.
Where and when is Farense vs Portimonense played?
Farense vs Portimonense is played on December 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio de São Lúis, in the Segunda Liga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Farense and Portimonense

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