FF Jaro vs Mariehamn: prediction and stats
VeikkausliigaRelegation Group - 27Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Jakobstads Centralplan (Pietarsaaren Keskuskenttä), Jacobstad
The Footlab AI model makes FF Jaro the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Mariehamn. The most likely score is 1-1. If FF Jaro wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,457 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FF Jaro vs Mariehamn?
A very open match: only 0 Elo points separate FF Jaro (1,591) and Mariehamn (1,591).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for FF Jaro vs Mariehamn
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
FF Jaro
4-4-2- 91V. Vuorinen
- 9L. Zetterström
- 21J. Myrevik
- 7J. Skau
- 25G. Kocsis
- 22K. Hardén
- 4M. Ogungbaro
- 5A. Bjonbäck
- 19F. Østigård Ness
- 6J. Brunell
- 1S. Vits
Mariehamn
4-2-3-1- 7A. Larsson
- 14Arvid Bergvik
- 20E. Patut
- 23V. Widlund
- 18A. Stroud
- 16A. Huttunen
- 31Samson Ngulube
- 2N. Nurmi
- 27L. Richtnér
- 5T. Koivisto
- 1K. Lund
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 01:02 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FF Jaro have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Mariehamn have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Turku PS(away) | 1-0 | Veikkausliiga |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Lahti(away) | 1-1 | Veikkausliiga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | SJK(home) | 1-1 | Veikkausliiga |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Ilves(away) | 0-2 | Veikkausliiga |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Mariehamn(away) | 0-2 | Veikkausliiga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Ilves(home) | 1-1 | Veikkausliiga |
| Sep 18, 2026 | SJK(away) | 1-2 | Veikkausliiga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Turku PS(home) | 1-0 | Veikkausliiga |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Lahti(away) | 1-2 | Veikkausliiga |
| Aug 31, 2026 | FF Jaro(home) | 2-0 | Veikkausliiga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 FF Jaro wins, 2 draws, 2 Mariehamn wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | Mariehamn 2-0 FF Jaro | Veikkausliiga |
| May 23, 2026 | FF Jaro 3-0 Mariehamn | Veikkausliiga |
| Sep 28, 2025 | FF Jaro 2-3 Mariehamn | Veikkausliiga |
| Jul 6, 2025 | FF Jaro 1-1 Mariehamn | Veikkausliiga |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Mariehamn 0-2 FF Jaro | Veikkausliiga |
| Sep 17, 2015 | FF Jaro 0-0 Mariehamn | Veikkausliiga |
How many goals should we expect?
FF Jaro score 0.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Mariehamn score 1.0 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FF Jaro | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Mariehamn | 1.0 | 1.9 | 3 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FF Jaro sit 5th in Veikkausliiga (20 points from 26 matches) and Mariehamn sit 6th (18 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | FF Jaro | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 21 | 48 | 20 |
| 6 | Mariehamn | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 21 | 48 | 18 |
A question about FF Jaro vs Mariehamn?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FF Jaro vs Mariehamn?
- The Footlab AI model makes FF Jaro the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Mariehamn.
- Where and when is FF Jaro vs Mariehamn played?
- FF Jaro vs Mariehamn is played on October 17, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Jakobstads Centralplan (Pietarsaaren Keskuskenttä), in the Veikkausliiga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.