Mariehamn vs FF Jaro: prediction and stats
VeikkausliigaRegular Season - 22Kick-off on August 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Wiklöf Holding Arena, Mariehamn, Ahvenanmaa (Åland
The Footlab model makes Mariehamn the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for FF Jaro. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 20, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mariehamn vs FF Jaro?
A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate Mariehamn (1,601) and FF Jaro (1,652).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mariehamn have 1 wins, 2 draws and 12 defeats; FF Jaro have 3, 2 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | SJK(home) | 2-0 | Veikkausliiga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ilves(away) | 0-2 | Veikkausliiga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Turku PS(away) | 0-3 | Veikkausliiga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | AC Oulu(home) | 1-1 | Veikkausliiga |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Lahti(home) | 0-2 | Veikkausliiga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | HJK Helsinki(away) | 0-3 | Veikkausliiga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | VPS(home) | 1-3 | Veikkausliiga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lahti(away) | 0-2 | Veikkausliiga |
| Jul 24, 2026 | SJK(home) | 2-1 | Veikkausliiga |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Inter Turku(home) | 0-0 | Veikkausliiga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Mariehamn win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 FF Jaro win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | FF Jaro 3-0 Mariehamn | Veikkausliiga |
| Sep 28, 2025 | FF Jaro 2-3 Mariehamn | Veikkausliiga |
| Jul 6, 2025 | FF Jaro 1-1 Mariehamn | Veikkausliiga |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Mariehamn 0-2 FF Jaro | Veikkausliiga |
| Sep 17, 2015 | FF Jaro 0-0 Mariehamn | Veikkausliiga |
| Jul 19, 2015 | Mariehamn 4-3 FF Jaro | Veikkausliiga |
How many goals should we expect?
Mariehamn score 0.5 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; FF Jaro score 1.1 and concede 2.6. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariehamn | 0.5 | 2.2 | 1 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| FF Jaro | 1.1 | 2.6 | 2 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mariehamn sit 12th in Veikkausliiga (8 points from 20 matches) and FF Jaro sit 11th (15 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | FF Jaro | 20 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 18 | 41 | 15 |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 20 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 11 | 41 | 8 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mariehamn vs FF Jaro?
- The Footlab model makes Mariehamn the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for FF Jaro.
- Where and when is Mariehamn vs FF Jaro played?
- Mariehamn vs FF Jaro is played on August 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Wiklöf Holding Arena, in the Veikkausliiga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.