Match

Fiorentina vs Lecce: prediction and stats

Serie ARegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze

FiorentinaLecce

The Footlab AI model makes Fiorentina the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Lecce. The most likely score is 2-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Fiorentina vs Lecce?

Fiorentina starts as the favourite with a 131-point Elo edge (1,972 vs 1,841).

63%22%15%
Fiorentina winDrawLecce win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Fiorentina vs Lecce

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Fiorentina

4-2-3-1
  1. 23Beto
  1. 30Franco Mastantuono
  2. 27C. Ndour
  3. 44N. Fagioli
  4. 42C. Inao Oulaï
  5. 29W. Gnonto
  1. 3R. Drăgușin
  2. 20Álex Jiménez
  3. 6L. Ranieri
  4. 21Valde
  1. 43David de Gea

Lecce

4-3-3
  1. 50S. Pierotti
  2. 22Paco Esteban
  3. 7A. Ahmed Fatah
  1. 29L. Coulibaly
  2. 20I. Ilić
  3. 14Y. Maleh
  1. 17Danilo Veiga
  2. 25A. Gallo
  3. 5J. Siebert
  4. 44Tiago Gabriel
  1. 30W. Falcone

Computed on October 14, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fiorentina have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Lecce have 7, 1 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Fiorentina
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 10, 2026Genoa(away)1-2Serie A
Sep 20, 2026Napoli(home)1-1Serie A
Sep 15, 2026Pisa(home)3-0Coppa Italia
Sep 11, 2026Venezia(away)4-2Serie A
Sep 5, 2026Torino(home)1-2Serie A
Lecce
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Bologna(home)1-2Serie A
Sep 20, 2026AC Milan(away)0-3Serie A
Sep 13, 2026Monza(home)3-2Serie A
Sep 7, 2026Cagliari(away)0-1Serie A
Aug 31, 2026AS Roma(home)0-4Serie A

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Fiorentina wins, 2 draws, 2 Lecce wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 20, 2026Lecce 1-1 FiorentinaSerie A
Nov 2, 2025Fiorentina 0-1 LecceSerie A
Feb 28, 2025Fiorentina 1-0 LecceSerie A
Oct 20, 2024Lecce 0-6 FiorentinaSerie A
Feb 2, 2024Lecce 3-2 FiorentinaSerie A
Aug 27, 2023Fiorentina 2-2 LecceSerie A

Last archived meeting: Lecce vs Fiorentina on Apr 20, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Fiorentina score 2.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Lecce score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Fiorentina2.01.5310/1510/15
Lecce1.31.545/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Fiorentina sit 19th in Serie A (4 points from 6 matches) and Lecce sit 13th (6 points from 6 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
13Lecce62046126
19Fiorentina61147144

A question about Fiorentina vs Lecce?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Fiorentina vs Lecce?
The Footlab AI model makes Fiorentina the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Lecce.
Where and when is Fiorentina vs Lecce played?
Fiorentina vs Lecce is played on January 10, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Artemio Franchi, in the Serie A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Fiorentina and Lecce

Ready to know everything about football?