FK Liepaja vs BFC Daugavpils: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 31Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Stadions Daugava mākslīgas laukums, Liepāja
The Footlab model makes FK Liepaja the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for BFC Daugavpils. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FK Liepaja vs BFC Daugavpils?
A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate FK Liepaja (1,676) and BFC Daugavpils (1,645).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FK Liepaja have 8 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats; BFC Daugavpils have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 3-1 | Virsliga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Super Nova(away) | 2-1 | Virsliga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Tukums(away) | 1-2 | Virsliga |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Austria Vienna(away) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | FS Jelgava(away) | 2-0 | Virsliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Super Nova(away) | 0-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ogre United(home) | 3-1 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tukums(home) | 2-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FS Jelgava(home) | 2-1 | Virsliga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Auda(away) | 0-1 | Virsliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 FK Liepaja win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 BFC Daugavpils win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils 3-1 FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| May 17, 2026 | FK Liepaja 2-1 BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
| Apr 3, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils 2-0 FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| Nov 2, 2025 | BFC Daugavpils 1-2 FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| Aug 16, 2025 | BFC Daugavpils 1-2 FK Liepaja | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2025 | FK Liepaja 2-1 BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
Last archived meeting: BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja on Jul 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FK Liepaja score 1.5 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; BFC Daugavpils score 1.4 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Liepaja | 1.5 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| BFC Daugavpils | 1.4 | 0.7 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FK Liepaja sit 5th in Virsliga (37 points from 26 matches) and BFC Daugavpils sit 4th (37 points from 27 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | BFC Daugavpils | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 33 | 31 | 37 |
| 5 | FK Liepaja | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 36 | 38 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FK Liepaja vs BFC Daugavpils?
- The Footlab model makes FK Liepaja the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for BFC Daugavpils.
- Where and when is FK Liepaja vs BFC Daugavpils played?
- FK Liepaja vs BFC Daugavpils is played on September 19, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Stadions Daugava mākslīgas laukums, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.