Tukums vs Grobiņa: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 31Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Tukuma mākslīgā laukumā stadions, Tukums
The Footlab model makes Tukums the favourite at 59%, against 22% for a draw and 19% for Grobiņa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tukums vs Grobiņa?
A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Tukums (1,507) and Grobiņa (1,496).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tukums have 2 wins, 2 draws and 11 defeats; Grobiņa have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Auda(away) | 0-3 | Virsliga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(away) | 0-2 | Virsliga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FK Liepaja(home) | 2-1 | Virsliga |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Rīgas FS(home) | 0-1 | Virsliga |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Riga(away) | 1-3 | Virsliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | FK Liepaja(away) | 1-3 | Virsliga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Auda(away) | 2-3 | Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Rīgas FS(away) | 1-6 | Virsliga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Riga(away) | 0-4 | Virsliga |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Ogre United(home) | 2-2 | Virsliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Tukums win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Grobiņa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 5, 2026 | Grobiņa 3-1 Tukums | Virsliga |
| May 15, 2026 | Grobiņa 3-3 Tukums | Virsliga |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Tukums 1-1 Grobiņa | Virsliga |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Grobiņa 1-0 Tukums | Virsliga |
| Jul 21, 2025 | Tukums 2-1 Grobiņa | Virsliga |
| May 21, 2025 | Grobiņa 2-0 Tukums | Virsliga |
How many goals should we expect?
Tukums score 1.1 and concede 2.4 goals per match over their last 15; Grobiņa score 0.8 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tukums | 1.1 | 2.4 | 0 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| Grobiņa | 0.8 | 2.1 | 2 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tukums sit 9th in Virsliga (20 points from 27 matches) and Grobiņa sit 8th (21 points from 27 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grobiņa | 27 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 19 | 50 | 21 |
| 9 | Tukums | 27 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 40 | 54 | 20 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tukums vs Grobiņa?
- The Footlab model makes Tukums the favourite at 59%, against 22% for a draw and 19% for Grobiņa.
- Where and when is Tukums vs Grobiņa played?
- Tukums vs Grobiņa is played on September 20, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Tukuma mākslīgā laukumā stadions, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.