Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 32Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Ogres pilsētas ģimnāzija, Ogre
The Footlab model makes BFC Daugavpils the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Ogre United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils?
BFC Daugavpils starts as the favourite with a 197-point Elo edge (1,645 vs 1,448).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ogre United have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; BFC Daugavpils have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FS Jelgava(home) | 2-3 | Virsliga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(away) | 1-3 | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Riga(away) | 1-4 | Virsliga |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Grobiņa(away) | 2-2 | Virsliga |
| Jul 19, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(home) | 0-4 | Virsliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Super Nova(away) | 0-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ogre United(home) | 3-1 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tukums(home) | 2-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FS Jelgava(home) | 2-1 | Virsliga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Auda(away) | 0-1 | Virsliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Ogre United win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 BFC Daugavpils win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils 3-1 Ogre United | Cup |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Ogre United 0-4 BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
| May 21, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils 3-1 Ogre United | Virsliga |
| Apr 7, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils 2-1 Ogre United | Virsliga |
Last archived meeting: BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United on Aug 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ogre United score 1.1 and concede 2.8 goals per match over their last 15; BFC Daugavpils score 1.4 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ogre United | 1.1 | 2.8 | 1 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| BFC Daugavpils | 1.4 | 0.7 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ogre United sit 10th in Virsliga (14 points from 26 matches) and BFC Daugavpils sit 4th (37 points from 27 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | BFC Daugavpils | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 33 | 31 | 37 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 26 | 68 | 14 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils?
- The Footlab model makes BFC Daugavpils the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Ogre United.
- Where and when is Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils played?
- Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils is played on October 11, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Ogres pilsētas ģimnāzija, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.