Ogre United vs Super Nova: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 31Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Ogres pilsētas ģimnāzija, Ogre
The Footlab model makes Super Nova the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Ogre United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ogre United vs Super Nova?
Super Nova starts as the favourite with a 106-point Elo edge (1,554 vs 1,448).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ogre United have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; Super Nova have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FS Jelgava(home) | 2-3 | Virsliga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(away) | 1-3 | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Riga(away) | 1-4 | Virsliga |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Grobiņa(away) | 2-2 | Virsliga |
| Jul 19, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(home) | 0-4 | Virsliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(home) | 0-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Rīgas FS(home) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FK Liepaja(home) | 1-2 | Virsliga |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 2-0 | Virsliga |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Ogre United(home) | 1-2 | Virsliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Ogre United win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Super Nova win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 6, 2026 | Super Nova 1-2 Ogre United | Virsliga |
| May 16, 2026 | Super Nova 3-1 Ogre United | Virsliga |
| Apr 3, 2026 | Ogre United 1-2 Super Nova | Virsliga |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Super Nova 3-0 Ogre United | 1. Liga |
| Jul 27, 2024 | Ogre United 1-1 Super Nova | 1. Liga |
Last archived meeting: Super Nova vs Ogre United on Jul 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ogre United score 1.1 and concede 2.8 goals per match over their last 15; Super Nova score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ogre United | 1.1 | 2.8 | 1 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Super Nova | 1.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ogre United sit 10th in Virsliga (14 points from 26 matches) and Super Nova sit 6th (28 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Super Nova | 25 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 26 | 37 | 28 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 26 | 68 | 14 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ogre United vs Super Nova?
- The Footlab model makes Super Nova the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Ogre United.
- Where and when is Ogre United vs Super Nova played?
- Ogre United vs Super Nova is played on September 20, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Ogres pilsētas ģimnāzija, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.