FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen: prediction and stats
A LygaRegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas, Kaunas
The Footlab model makes FK Zalgiris Vilnius the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 18% for Hegelmann Litauen. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen?
FK Zalgiris Vilnius starts as the favourite with a 105-point Elo edge (1,741 vs 1,637).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FK Zalgiris Vilnius have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Hegelmann Litauen have 2, 5 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Džiugas Telšiai(home) | 2-0 | A Lyga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Banga(home) | 2-3 | A Lyga |
| Aug 13, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(away) | 0-4 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(home) | 2-5 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Dinamo Tbilisi(home) | 7-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Banga(home) | 1-1 | A Lyga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kauno Žalgiris(away) | 0-2 | A Lyga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | TransINVEST Vilnius(home) | 1-2 | A Lyga |
| Jul 27, 2026 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius(home) | 2-3 | A Lyga |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Šiauliai(away) | 2-0 | A Lyga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 FK Zalgiris Vilnius win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Hegelmann Litauen win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | Hegelmann Litauen 2-3 FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga |
| May 24, 2026 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1-3 Hegelmann Litauen | A Lyga |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Hegelmann Litauen 0-0 FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga |
| Feb 8, 2026 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1-0 Hegelmann Litauen | Friendlies Clubs |
| Nov 2, 2025 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3-1 Hegelmann Litauen | A Lyga |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Hegelmann Litauen 2-2 FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga |
Last archived meeting: Hegelmann Litauen vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius on Jul 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FK Zalgiris Vilnius score 2.2 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Hegelmann Litauen score 1.0 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 2.2 | 1.8 | 4 | 8/15 | 13/15 |
| Hegelmann Litauen | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FK Zalgiris Vilnius sit 3rd in A Lyga (37 points from 23 matches) and Hegelmann Litauen sit 7th (23 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 37 | 27 | 37 |
| 7 | Hegelmann Litauen | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 27 | 42 | 23 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen?
- The Footlab model makes FK Zalgiris Vilnius the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 18% for Hegelmann Litauen.
- Where and when is FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen played?
- FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen is played on October 18, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas, in the A Lyga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.