Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris: prediction and stats
A LygaRegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 11:15 AM (UTC)Marijampolės futbolo arenos maniežas, Marijampolė
The Footlab model makes Kauno Žalgiris the favourite at 35%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Suduva Marijampole. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris?
A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate Suduva Marijampole (1,778) and Kauno Žalgiris (1,827).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Suduva Marijampole have 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats; Kauno Žalgiris have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Panevėžys(home) | 2-0 | A Lyga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Džiugas Telšiai(away) | 2-0 | A Lyga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Banga(away) | 3-0 | A Lyga |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Hegelmann Litauen(home) | 5-1 | A Lyga |
| Jul 6, 2026 | TransINVEST Vilnius(home) | 0-0 | A Lyga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Beşiktaş(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | TransINVEST Vilnius(home) | 1-1 | A Lyga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Dinamo Zagreb(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hegelmann Litauen(home) | 2-0 | A Lyga |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Dinamo Zagreb(away) | 0-5 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Suduva Marijampole win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Kauno Žalgiris win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Suduva Marijampole 2-1 Kauno Žalgiris | A Lyga |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Kauno Žalgiris 1-1 Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga |
| Jan 17, 2026 | Suduva Marijampole 0-4 Kauno Žalgiris | Friendlies Clubs |
| Oct 27, 2025 | Suduva Marijampole 1-0 Kauno Žalgiris | A Lyga |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Kauno Žalgiris 1-1 Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Kauno Žalgiris 0-2 Suduva Marijampole | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris on May 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Suduva Marijampole score 1.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Kauno Žalgiris score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suduva Marijampole | 1.9 | 0.7 | 6 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Kauno Žalgiris | 1.4 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Suduva Marijampole sit 1st in A Lyga (42 points from 23 matches) and Kauno Žalgiris sit 2nd (38 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suduva Marijampole | 23 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 33 | 17 | 42 |
| 2 | Kauno Žalgiris | 22 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 41 | 16 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris?
- The Footlab model makes Kauno Žalgiris the favourite at 35%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Suduva Marijampole.
- Where and when is Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris played?
- Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris is played on October 18, 2026 at 11:15 AM (UTC) at Marijampolės futbolo arenos maniežas, in the A Lyga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.