Flambeau du Centre vs Le Messager Ngozi: prediction and stats
Ligue ARegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stade Ingoma, Gitega
The Footlab model makes Flambeau du Centre the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Le Messager Ngozi. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Flambeau du Centre vs Le Messager Ngozi?
Flambeau du Centre starts as the favourite with a 118-point Elo edge (1,646 vs 1,528).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Flambeau du Centre have 4 wins, 8 draws and 3 defeats; Le Messager Ngozi have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Aigle Noir(home) | 1-1 | Ligue A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kayanza United(away) | 0-0 | Ligue A |
| May 9, 2026 | Rukinzo(away) | 1-1 | Ligue A |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Green Farmers FC(home) | 5-1 | Ligue A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Kayanza United(away) | 2-2 | Ligue A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Muzinga(home) | 2-1 | Ligue A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Bumamuru(away) | 1-0 | Ligue A |
| May 9, 2026 | Inter Star(home) | 3-0 | Ligue A |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Vital'O(away) | 2-1 | Ligue A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Royal Vision(home) | 0-1 | Ligue A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Flambeau du Centre win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Le Messager Ngozi win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Flambeau du Centre 1-0 Le Messager Ngozi | Ligue A |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Le Messager Ngozi 0-1 Flambeau du Centre | Ligue A |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Le Messager Ngozi 0-0 Flambeau du Centre | Ligue A |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Flambeau du Centre 1-0 Le Messager Ngozi | Ligue A |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Flambeau du Centre 3-0 Le Messager Ngozi | Ligue A |
| Aug 27, 2023 | Le Messager Ngozi 3-0 Flambeau du Centre | Ligue A |
Last archived meeting: Flambeau du Centre vs Le Messager Ngozi on Jan 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Flambeau du Centre score 1.3 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Le Messager Ngozi score 1.3 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flambeau du Centre | 1.3 | 1.0 | 5 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Le Messager Ngozi | 1.3 | 0.8 | 5 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Flambeau du Centre sit 9th in Ligue A (2 points from 2 matches) and Le Messager Ngozi sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Le Messager Ngozi | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Flambeau du Centre | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Flambeau du Centre vs Le Messager Ngozi?
- The Footlab model makes Flambeau du Centre the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Le Messager Ngozi.
- Where and when is Flambeau du Centre vs Le Messager Ngozi played?
- Flambeau du Centre vs Le Messager Ngozi is played on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Ingoma, in the Ligue A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.