Flamengo vs Botafogo: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 25Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho (Maracanã), Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab model makes Flamengo the favourite at 72%, against 18% for a draw and 10% for Botafogo. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Flamengo vs Botafogo?
Flamengo starts as the favourite with a 180-point Elo edge (2,130 vs 1,950).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Flamengo have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Botafogo have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Cruzeiro(home) | 2-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Mirassol(away) | 5-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Cruzeiro(away) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Vitoria(home) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Internacional(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cienciano(home) | 1-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vitoria(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Cienciano(away) | 1-6 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Fluminense(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Cruzeiro(away) | 1-0 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Flamengo win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Botafogo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Botafogo 0-3 Flamengo | Serie A |
| Feb 15, 2026 | Botafogo 1-2 Flamengo | Carioca - 1 |
| Oct 15, 2025 | Botafogo 0-3 Flamengo | Serie A |
| May 18, 2025 | Flamengo 0-0 Botafogo | Serie A |
| Feb 13, 2025 | Flamengo 1-0 Botafogo | Carioca - 1 |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Botafogo 1-3 Flamengo | Supercopa do Brasil |
How many goals should we expect?
Flamengo score 1.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Botafogo score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo | 1.9 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Botafogo | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Flamengo sit 2nd in Serie A (45 points from 22 matches) and Botafogo sit 11th (30 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Flamengo | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 44 | 19 | 45 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 35 | 34 | 30 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Flamengo vs Botafogo?
- The Footlab model makes Flamengo the favourite at 72%, against 18% for a draw and 10% for Botafogo.
- Where and when is Flamengo vs Botafogo played?
- Flamengo vs Botafogo is played on August 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho (Maracanã), in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.