Atletico-MG vs Vitoria: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 25Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 09:30 PM (UTC)Arena MRV, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais
The Footlab model makes Atletico-MG the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Vitoria. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico-MG vs Vitoria?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Atletico-MG (1,983) and Vitoria (1,966).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico-MG have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Vitoria have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | RB Bragantino(home) | 2-2 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Gremio(home) | 3-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 1-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Remo(away) | 2-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Juventude(away) | 1-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Botafogo(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Flamengo(away) | 0-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense(home) | 4-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense(away) | 0-2 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Palmeiras(home) | 0-4 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Atletico-MG win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Vitoria win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Vitoria 2-0 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Vitoria 1-0 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Atletico-MG 2-2 Vitoria | Serie A |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Atletico-MG 2-2 Vitoria | Serie A |
| Jun 20, 2024 | Vitoria 4-2 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| Aug 26, 2018 | Vitoria 1-0 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Vitoria vs Atletico-MG on Mar 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico-MG score 1.4 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Vitoria score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico-MG | 1.4 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Vitoria | 1.5 | 1.5 | 5 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico-MG sit 8th in Serie A (32 points from 22 matches) and Vitoria sit 12th (29 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Atletico-MG | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 30 | 27 | 32 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 33 | 29 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico-MG vs Vitoria?
- The Footlab model makes Atletico-MG the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Vitoria.
- Where and when is Atletico-MG vs Vitoria played?
- Atletico-MG vs Vitoria is played on August 29, 2026 at 09:30 PM (UTC) at Arena MRV, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.