Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 25Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Arena da Baixada, Curitiba, Paraná
The Footlab model makes Atletico Paranaense the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Fluminense. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense?
A very open match: only 25 Elo points separate Atletico Paranaense (1,988) and Fluminense (2,013).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Paranaense have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Fluminense have 5, 8 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | RB Bragantino(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Santos(away) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Vitoria(away) | 0-4 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Vitoria(home) | 2-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Corinthians(away) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Remo(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Independ. Rivadavia(away) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Palmeiras(home) | 3-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Independ. Rivadavia(home) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Botafogo(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Atletico Paranaense win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Fluminense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Fluminense 3-2 Atletico Paranaense | Serie A |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Fluminense | Serie A |
| Oct 22, 2024 | Fluminense 1-0 Atletico Paranaense | Serie A |
| Aug 27, 2023 | Atletico Paranaense 2-2 Fluminense | Serie A |
| Apr 22, 2023 | Fluminense 2-0 Atletico Paranaense | Serie A |
| Sep 3, 2022 | Atletico Paranaense 1-0 Fluminense | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico Paranaense score 1.1 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Fluminense score 1.2 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Paranaense | 1.1 | 0.7 | 8 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Fluminense | 1.2 | 1.0 | 3 | 11/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico Paranaense sit 3rd in Serie A (41 points from 23 matches) and Fluminense sit 4th (41 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 20 | 41 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 36 | 29 | 41 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense?
- The Footlab model makes Atletico Paranaense the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Fluminense.
- Where and when is Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense played?
- Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense is played on August 30, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Arena da Baixada, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.