Flora Tallinn vs Vaprus: prediction and stats
MeistriliigaRegular Season - 29Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC)A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn
The Footlab model makes Flora Tallinn the favourite at 63%, against 21% for a draw and 16% for Vaprus. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Flora Tallinn vs Vaprus?
Flora Tallinn starts as the favourite with a 160-point Elo edge (1,714 vs 1,554).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Flora Tallinn have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Vaprus have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vaprus(away) | 2-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kuressaare(home) | 2-3 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Inter Club d'Escaldes(home) | 0-4 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Inter Club d'Escaldes(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Laagri(home) | 1-0 | Meistriliiga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Flora Tallinn(home) | 1-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kalju Nomme(away) | 1-3 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Phoenix(away) | 5-0 | Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(home) | 1-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Tabasalu Ulasabat(away) | 4-1 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Flora Tallinn win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Vaprus win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vaprus 1-2 Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Vaprus 1-2 Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Flora Tallinn 2-0 Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| Jan 17, 2026 | Vaprus 2-2 Flora Tallinn | Friendlies Clubs |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Vaprus 0-3 Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Flora Tallinn 3-0 Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
Last archived meeting: Vaprus vs Flora Tallinn on Aug 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Flora Tallinn score 1.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Vaprus score 1.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flora Tallinn | 1.3 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Vaprus | 1.9 | 1.6 | 4 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Flora Tallinn sit 3rd in Meistriliiga (42 points from 22 matches) and Vaprus sit 7th (27 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Flora Tallinn | 22 | 14 | 0 | 8 | 44 | 25 | 42 |
| 7 | Vaprus | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 31 | 44 | 27 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Flora Tallinn vs Vaprus?
- The Footlab model makes Flora Tallinn the favourite at 63%, against 21% for a draw and 16% for Vaprus.
- Where and when is Flora Tallinn vs Vaprus played?
- Flora Tallinn vs Vaprus is played on September 19, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at A. Le Coq Arena, in the Meistriliiga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.