Nõmme United vs Paide: prediction and stats
MeistriliigaRegular Season - 29Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Männiku staadion, Tallinn
The Footlab model makes Paide the favourite at 43%, against 23% for a draw and 34% for Nõmme United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nõmme United vs Paide?
Paide starts as the favourite with a 168-point Elo edge (1,706 vs 1,538).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nõmme United have 6 wins, 0 draws and 9 defeats; Paide have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Paide(away) | 1-4 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Hiiumaa(away) | 2-0 | Cup |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Tammeka(home) | 0-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(away) | 0-5 | Meistriliiga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Trans Narva(home) | 1-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nõmme United(home) | 4-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Trans Narva(away) | 1-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Rapid Vienna(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Rapid Vienna(home) | 1-4 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Kuressaare(home) | 1-0 | Meistriliiga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Nõmme United win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Paide win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Paide 4-1 Nõmme United | Meistriliiga |
| May 10, 2026 | Nõmme United 2-3 Paide | Meistriliiga |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Paide 3-1 Nõmme United | Meistriliiga |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Nõmme United 0-4 Paide | Meistriliiga |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Paide 7-2 Nõmme United | Meistriliiga |
| May 12, 2024 | Nõmme United 0-1 Paide | Meistriliiga |
Last archived meeting: Paide vs Nõmme United on Aug 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nõmme United score 2.0 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Paide score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nõmme United | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
| Paide | 1.5 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nõmme United sit 8th in Meistriliiga (25 points from 24 matches) and Paide sit 4th (39 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Paide | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 38 | 30 | 39 |
| 8 | Nõmme United | 24 | 8 | 1 | 15 | 41 | 58 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nõmme United vs Paide?
- The Footlab model makes Paide the favourite at 43%, against 23% for a draw and 34% for Nõmme United.
- Where and when is Nõmme United vs Paide played?
- Nõmme United vs Paide is played on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Männiku staadion, in the Meistriliiga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.