Match

Fluminense vs Palmeiras: prediction and stats

CONMEBOL LibertadoresSemi-finalsKick-off on October 15, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC)Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho (Maracanã), Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro

FluminensePalmeiras

The Footlab AI model makes Palmeiras the favourite at 35%, against 32% for a draw and 33% for Fluminense. The most likely score is 1-1. If Palmeiras wins, the most likely score is 0-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Fluminense vs Palmeiras?

Palmeiras starts as the favourite with a 106-point Elo edge (1,996 vs 1,889).

33%32%35%
Fluminense winDrawPalmeiras win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Fluminense vs Palmeiras

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Fluminense

4-2-3-1
  1. 7Hulk
  1. 8Martinelli
  2. 17A. Canobbio
  3. 30Y. Soteldo
  4. 16Nonato
  5. 10PH Ganso
  1. 29J. Millán
  2. 3Thiago Silva
  3. 13Guilherme Arana
  4. 23Guga
  1. 1Fábio

Palmeiras

3-4-2-1
  1. 9Vitor Roque
  1. 42J. López
  2. 30Lucas Evangelista
  3. 8Andreas Pereira
  4. 4A. Giay
  5. 22J. Piquerez
  6. 11J. Arias
  1. 2A. Barboza
  2. 26Murilo
  3. 15G. Gómez
  1. 1Carlos Miguel

Computed on October 14, 2026 at 12:52 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fluminense have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Palmeiras have 7, 6 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Fluminense
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Flamengo(away)0-1Serie A
Oct 9, 2026Coritiba(home)4-0Serie A
Sep 20, 2026Corinthians(away)3-1Serie A
Sep 15, 2026Platense(away)1-2CONMEBOL Libertadores
Sep 12, 2026Atletico-MG(away)1-3Serie A
Palmeiras
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Corinthians(home)4-1Serie A
Oct 9, 2026Bahia(home)1-0Serie A
Sep 20, 2026Gremio(away)0-0Serie A
Sep 16, 2026LDU de Quito(away)2-3CONMEBOL Libertadores
Sep 12, 2026Sao Paulo(home)2-0Serie A

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Fluminense wins, 1 draw, 2 Palmeiras wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 15, 2026Fluminense 3-2 PalmeirasSerie A
Feb 26, 2026Palmeiras 2-1 FluminenseSerie A
Nov 23, 2025Palmeiras 0-0 FluminenseSerie A
Jul 23, 2025Fluminense 1-2 PalmeirasSerie A
Dec 8, 2024Palmeiras 0-1 FluminenseSerie A
Jul 25, 2024Fluminense 1-0 PalmeirasSerie A

Last archived meeting: Fluminense vs Palmeiras on Aug 15, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Fluminense score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Palmeiras score 1.5 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 33% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Fluminense1.51.259/158/15
Palmeiras1.50.796/155/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Fluminense sit 2nd in CONMEBOL Libertadores (8 points from 6 matches) and Palmeiras sit 2nd (11 points from 6 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
2FluminenseGroup C6222778
2PalmeirasGroup F632110511

A question about Fluminense vs Palmeiras?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
The Footlab AI model makes Palmeiras the favourite at 35%, against 32% for a draw and 33% for Fluminense.
Where and when is Fluminense vs Palmeiras played?
Fluminense vs Palmeiras is played on October 15, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho (Maracanã), in the CONMEBOL Libertadores.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 33% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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