Match

Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P.: prediction and stats

CONMEBOL LibertadoresSemi-finalsKick-off on October 23, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC)Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho (Maracanã), Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro

FlamengoEstudiantes L.P.

The Footlab AI model makes Flamengo the favourite at 56%, against 27% for a draw and 17% for Estudiantes L.P.. The most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,511 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P.?

Flamengo starts as the favourite with a 103-point Elo edge (2,055 vs 1,952).

56%27%17%
Flamengo winDrawEstudiantes L.P. win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P.

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Flamengo

4-2-3-1
  1. 27Bruno Henrique
  1. 15J. Carrascal
  2. 16Samuel Lino
  3. 5E. Pulgar
  4. 11Lucas Paquetá
  5. 8Saúl
  1. 4Léo Pereira
  2. 3Léo Ortiz
  3. 22Emerson Royal
  4. 26Alex Sandro
  1. 1A. Rossi

Known absences

  • G. de ArrascaetaOut · Muscle injury

Estudiantes L.P.

4-4-2
  1. 9G. Carrillo
  2. 10T. Palacios
  1. 22A. Castro
  2. 21Lucas Ezequiel Piovi
  3. 17J. Burgos
  4. 31B. Gallego
  1. 4S. Núñez
  2. 40E. Mancuso
  3. 13G. Benedetti
  4. 26R. Funes Mori
  1. 16F. Muslera

Computed on October 17, 2026 at 02:34 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Flamengo have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat; Estudiantes L.P. have 6, 4 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Flamengo
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 16, 2026Estudiantes L.P.(away)0-0CONMEBOL Libertadores
Oct 11, 2026Fluminense(home)1-0Serie A
Oct 8, 2026Santos(away)2-2Serie A
Sep 20, 2026RB Bragantino(home)2-1Serie A
Sep 18, 2026Independiente del Valle(home)1-1CONMEBOL Libertadores
Estudiantes L.P.
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 16, 2026Flamengo(home)0-0CONMEBOL Libertadores
Oct 10, 2026Central Cordoba de Santiago(away)2-2Liga Profesional Argentina
Oct 5, 2026Gimnasia M.(home)3-0Liga Profesional Argentina
Oct 2, 2026Platense(away)0-1Copa Argentina
Sep 26, 2026Rosario Central(home)1-3Super Copa International

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Flamengo wins, 2 draws, 1 Estudiantes L.P. win.

DateScoreCompetition
Oct 16, 2026Estudiantes L.P. 0-0 FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores
May 21, 2026Flamengo 1-0 Estudiantes L.P.CONMEBOL Libertadores
Apr 30, 2026Estudiantes L.P. 1-1 FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores
Sep 26, 2025Estudiantes L.P. 1-0 FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores
Sep 19, 2025Flamengo 2-1 Estudiantes L.P.CONMEBOL Libertadores

Last archived meeting: Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo on Oct 16, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Flamengo score 1.8 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Estudiantes L.P. score 1.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Flamengo1.80.778/157/15
Estudiantes L.P.1.40.966/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Flamengo sit 1st in CONMEBOL Libertadores (16 points from 6 matches) and Estudiantes L.P. sit 2nd (9 points from 6 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
1Flamengo651014216
2Estudiantes L.P.6231659

A question about Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P.?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P.?
The Footlab AI model makes Flamengo the favourite at 56%, against 27% for a draw and 17% for Estudiantes L.P..
Where and when is Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P. played?
Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P. is played on October 23, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho (Maracanã), in the CONMEBOL Libertadores.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Flamengo and Estudiantes L.P.

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