Match

Palmeiras vs Fluminense: prediction and stats

CONMEBOL LibertadoresSemi-finalsKick-off on October 20, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Allianz Parque, São Paulo, São Paulo

PalmeirasFluminense

The Footlab AI model makes Palmeiras the favourite at 64%, against 23% for a draw and 13% for Fluminense. The most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Palmeiras vs Fluminense?

Palmeiras starts as the favourite with a 106-point Elo edge (1,996 vs 1,889).

64%23%13%
Palmeiras winDrawFluminense win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Palmeiras vs Fluminense

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Palmeiras

3-4-2-1
  1. 9Vitor Roque
  1. 42J. López
  2. 30Lucas Evangelista
  3. 8Andreas Pereira
  4. 4A. Giay
  5. 22J. Piquerez
  6. 11J. Arias
  1. 2A. Barboza
  2. 26Murilo
  3. 15G. Gómez
  1. 1Carlos Miguel

Fluminense

4-2-3-1
  1. 7Hulk
  1. 8Martinelli
  2. 17A. Canobbio
  3. 30Y. Soteldo
  4. 16Nonato
  5. 10PH Ganso
  1. 29J. Millán
  2. 3Thiago Silva
  3. 13Guilherme Arana
  4. 23Guga
  1. 1Fábio

Computed on October 13, 2026 at 04:56 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Palmeiras have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Fluminense have 6, 5 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Palmeiras
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Corinthians(home)4-1Serie A
Oct 9, 2026Bahia(home)1-0Serie A
Sep 20, 2026Gremio(away)0-0Serie A
Sep 16, 2026LDU de Quito(away)2-3CONMEBOL Libertadores
Sep 12, 2026Sao Paulo(home)2-0Serie A
Fluminense
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Flamengo(away)0-1Serie A
Oct 9, 2026Coritiba(home)4-0Serie A
Sep 20, 2026Corinthians(away)3-1Serie A
Sep 15, 2026Platense(away)1-2CONMEBOL Libertadores
Sep 12, 2026Atletico-MG(away)1-3Serie A

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Palmeiras wins, 1 draw, 3 Fluminense wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 15, 2026Fluminense 3-2 PalmeirasSerie A
Feb 26, 2026Palmeiras 2-1 FluminenseSerie A
Nov 23, 2025Palmeiras 0-0 FluminenseSerie A
Jul 23, 2025Fluminense 1-2 PalmeirasSerie A
Dec 8, 2024Palmeiras 0-1 FluminenseSerie A
Jul 25, 2024Fluminense 1-0 PalmeirasSerie A

Last archived meeting: Fluminense vs Palmeiras on Aug 15, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Palmeiras score 1.5 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Fluminense score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Palmeiras1.50.796/155/15
Fluminense1.51.259/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Palmeiras sit 2nd in CONMEBOL Libertadores (11 points from 6 matches) and Fluminense sit 2nd (8 points from 6 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
2PalmeirasGroup F632110511
2FluminenseGroup C6222778

A question about Palmeiras vs Fluminense?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
The Footlab AI model makes Palmeiras the favourite at 64%, against 23% for a draw and 13% for Fluminense.
Where and when is Palmeiras vs Fluminense played?
Palmeiras vs Fluminense is played on October 20, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Allianz Parque, in the CONMEBOL Libertadores.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Palmeiras and Fluminense

Ready to know everything about football?