Where and when is Fortuna Köln vs MSV Duisburg played?

Fortuna Köln vs MSV Duisburg is played on January 16, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Südstadion, in the 3. Liga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Fortuna Köln vs MSV Duisburg: prediction and stats

3. LigaRegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Südstadion, Köln

Fortuna Köln

MSV Duisburg

The Footlab model makes Fortuna Köln the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for MSV Duisburg. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Fortuna Köln vs MSV Duisburg?

A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Fortuna Köln (2,037) and MSV Duisburg (2,032).

Fortuna Köln win45 %

Draw24 %

MSV Duisburg win30 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fortuna Köln have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; MSV Duisburg have 7, 4 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Fortuna Köln
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 15, 2026	Alemannia Aachen(home)	1-1	3. Liga
Aug 8, 2026	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach(away)	0-1	3. Liga
Aug 1, 2026	Kickers Offenbach(home)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	VVV Venlo(away)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 18, 2026	Borussia M'gladbach II(home)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs

MSV Duisburg
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	SV Elversberg(home)	1-3	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Verl(away)	4-2	3. Liga
Aug 8, 2026	SV Meppen(home)	3-0	3. Liga
Aug 1, 2026	Sparta Rotterdam(away)	0-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	Arminia Bielefeld(away)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Fortuna Köln win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 MSV Duisburg win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 1, 2025	MSV Duisburg 2-0 Fortuna Köln	Regionalliga - West
Sep 14, 2024	Fortuna Köln 0-0 MSV Duisburg	Regionalliga - West
Jul 14, 2023	Fortuna Köln 0-1 MSV Duisburg	Friendlies Clubs
Jan 7, 2022	Fortuna Köln 2-2 MSV Duisburg	Friendlies Clubs
May 13, 2017	Fortuna Köln 0-3 MSV Duisburg	3. Liga
Dec 10, 2016	MSV Duisburg 2-0 Fortuna Köln	3. Liga

Last archived meeting: MSV Duisburg vs Fortuna Köln on Mar 1, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Fortuna Köln score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; MSV Duisburg score 1.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Fortuna Köln	1.7	1.1	4	8/15	9/15
MSV Duisburg	1.8	1.3	4	10/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Fortuna Köln sit 16th in 3. Liga (1 points from 2 matches) and MSV Duisburg sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MSV Duisburg	2	2	0	0	7	2	6
16	Fortuna Köln	2	0	1	1	1	2	1

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Fortuna Köln vs MSV Duisburg?: The Footlab model makes Fortuna Köln the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for MSV Duisburg.
Where and when is Fortuna Köln vs MSV Duisburg played?: Fortuna Köln vs MSV Duisburg is played on January 16, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Südstadion, in the 3. Liga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.